Stormpc

EURO actually improved in that it's liking the idea of the coastal developing. Closer this time to the GFS but not there yet. Not terrible. Places that get into that first overrunning band may be fortunate enough to have snow flying for almost 24 hours if the coastal gets going quick enough like shown on the gfs. Not that it will amount to much but certainly better than blue skies and wind. I'm still 62 degrees at the house right now!!

12Z GFS holds/ups the ante for HR/NENC. Not going backwards that's for sure.

The 6z GFS is what CAN happen with that third wave just off the coast. Cold air in place with moisture thrown over top of the Arctic boundary. That's our only winning scenario in Hampton roads. That's also an outlier. Keep watching...we'll see.

Worse run for north of Richmond but it actually puts us coasties in the game for some late development with cold air becoming entrenched overnight Tuesday into wednesday. Wirh this kind of scraper, we can luck into an inch or two down this way. Obviously not ideal for the masses, but this is the one scenario where a very few of us can score.

And things will look completely different by 0z Saturday. Lots of model spread. Let's get rid of this cutter and see what happens tomorrow afternoon. I still feel pretty good about the Richmond area for seeing some snow at least. Hunting the big dog is going to disappoint a lot of people. That's not in the cards right now. However maybe the 20th? Always the next one. Anyway for a hobbyist it should be an interesting and fun three days. Plus we have NFL playoffs except for that Saturday night crap on peacock which I'm not going to get.

Later development, LP further SE after the cold gets entrenched. Great news for RIC and further SE. Not so great up north. Verbatim it's a nice modest hit. Even I see flakes. 25 mins to Chesapeake to see ground coverage. At least we have something. I'd be interested if I lived Williamsburg and north. Good fun until 1am. Till tomorrow...

That line just cleared my neighborhood and it was a little shocking. Directly behind the monsoon wind driven rain was 90 seconds of exceptionally high winds probably gusting around 70 mph. Hadn't seen anything close to that since Dorian tore up the neighborhood a few years ago. Lots of banging against the house. We'll find out tomorrow what that was but that was pretty intense. We got spared the flooding rains. Just some on and off showers until the Squall line moved through. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get one inch total. Anyway that was fun. Looking forward to tracking the next few weeks.

A lot harder to get snow down my way so I don't even bother looking that far until I see a cold pattern established in the east. Richmond and West can LUCK into certain events but not for us down in the Tidewater or outer banks. We need a hefty Continental snow pack and established cold with Southern stream riding underneath us to hope to grasp anything. Let's see how the deck is shuffled after these two cutter bombs clear. Anyway it might be an active day. Be safe out there. Check in later if anything interesting is happening.

Disgusting greed. I hope peacock and NFL suffer immensely because of this. It's about time the NFL takes a hit. Screw them both.

In the immediate we need to look out for possible spin-ups along that Squall line tomorrow evening. Not so sure about the winds even at the vulnerable Coastal locations but some widespread severe may be possible. Interested to see what happens down south later today. The once modeled widespread Heavy Rain event looks more like some showers during the day then a concentrated Squall line to finish it off. I don't think our locales will have any issues with Urban Street flooding. Severe is something to watch for sure. Great job @Ric Airport chasing down possible winter scenarios for the region. Always a nice read. Thank you for that.

Nurse ratchett actually lived in Leesburg for a while. Late 90s. The actress.

I bet he gets some looks this week. Need to work him in before the bye week. That being said I have no idea if he has any value whatsoever given the dumpster organization (yes Darkstar) he played with this year. I pray they lose every game for the next 20 years. Such disrespectful crap to feed their fans year and year out. I laugh at the idiot fans that still dress up like buffoons in all their jet gear at Met Life. Laughing stock. I can't do it anymore.

Hopefully they get something out of him. He was absolutely brutal for the jets. I know they didn't give him any help but when he was in there he was terrible. Unfortunately I'm a fan so I watch every game. So many drops. Missed pass protections. Garbage route running. He mailed it in. Didn't want to be there. But hopefully it works out. Nothing against him. Rooting for the ravens.

Received .32 of rain overnight. Had some sleet mixed in during heaviest. Got loud around the windows around 2am. Looks like a parade of rain events for the next 10 days for our area. Then maybe some winter cold after. All good. Can use a break from the rain though.

Just had a quick burst of light snow and grapple mixed in with the last shower that came through. First of the year (season too) on the coast.

Yes. That's him. Funny guy. Roy Scheider avatar.

Finished with 3.14. Nothing this area can't handle. Was a little surprised how flooded the lower lying fields off 168 were. No wind damage whatsoever. 45 mph ain't gonna do it here. Don't mind the normal or slightly below normal temperatures ahead. I don't need the icebox if it's not going to snow. Getting too old. Doesn't feel as good anymore. Nice job RIC airport keeping our meager followers engaged in these events. You'll get yours...soon.

They are saying 15" plus now. With a dew point in the mid-60s down here there's some tropical characteristics for sure

1.47 with first round. Now we see what kind of convective elements come through. Wind just started last 20 minutes where I am at. A few good gusts close to 40. So far pretty much everything according to forecast and plan. "Dangerous" part of the storm is beginning.

Winds gusting mid 50s over Hatteras this past hour. Just now getting breezy up here further up coast, still only 20's but it's going downhill. Already near .5 in so far.

Here we go! Precip shield moving into area. Somehow the ground was saturated and everything wet even without any rain showers this morning so we know we're dealing with some juice. Wind gusting to 46 last hour at Hilton head. Harbinger of things to come. Let's see if anyone can get a gust over 60 later this evening. 55/55 light rain has begun.

Pretty much all guidance now is offshore with the center of the low passing over or east of OBX. Some have it going through the Albemarle sound and out through Virginia beach. Precip max shifting east as well. Looks like we're starting to see some consensus.

GFS I presume. Also Canadian. Both were offshore.

It's getting late in the game and there really still hasn't been a consensus established forecast track. On the coast. Off the coast or inland? I'll always hedge it will take the coastal route but stay pretty close to shore if not slightly inland crossing over or just west of VA beach. Coastal areas can easily withstand 50 to 60 mph gusts. That's most likely so I don't anticipate any issues down this way unless there's some spin-ups. We'll see. At least there's something going on

Looking less severe/tornadic for all of us if that off-shore track holds. But that wind! Rarely comes to fruition based on those maps/products, but who knows. I'd bet Hatteras sees 50+, but that's it.