CoastalWx

I think it would be more of a background Nina state with SE ridging. anyways, I don’t know why people just can’t post things without people, taking it and blowing things out of proportion. I’m optimistic for some fun and well aware of the caveats. Just relax, sit back, and enjoy the latitudinal gradient. J/K.

It’s not fast Pacific flow. Quite the opposite with the ridging. You’re getting confused.

He knows NYC is toast

You can’t say that. But I wasn’t a fan of how guidance lost the NAO ridging over the last two weeks. I think we’re gonna have some chances, fingers crossed.

It certainly opens up the door to good thermal gradient. And obviously yes, that powers storms. But with that comes some southeast ridge and then the storm track might get dicey. i’m just saying these are some of the things that I kind of see that perhaps are a little concerning to me, but I’m not writing off December or anything like that. It’s too far out to really determine that just don’t be shocked if all this snowy talk doesn’t exactly happen at least in southern New England. Probably will be a great December up north. One day we’ll sit back with a massive ridge out west where Calgary is 85 in December. I’ll sit outside and smoke a cjgar without a care in the world as the snow falls on my nude body.

What I was hoping to see was some -NAO to help sort of keep the PV further south. But without that we’ll probably be prone to cutters. Hard to tell at this point. I do think we’ll have chances unlike previous Decembers, but I wouldn’t plan on extended snow pack at least in southern New England.

The PV will eventually migrate more to where it should be in northern Canada and cause a big temperature difference between the Canadian border and southern US.

I think it’s helped with the Pacific side of things, but a lot of this action seems to be focused more in the stratosphere and not a whole lot in the troposphere. Overhyped as usual.

All the disrobing to wind reversals and it’s a neutral to +AO lol. Maybe it’s helped with the WPO area. But yeah just keep that cross polar flow coming. I told Ray I do see some signs of zonal flow so I feel like we’ll be sweating bullets at times. Guidance is already warming in the srn US. Let’s hope we average out to be more on the good side of things.

We’ll have plenty of chances of 60 dews coming up.

60F temps or a tad higher tomorrow for wolfie.

I meant for a sheared POS well to the south

Better hope it’s not the 6z gfs or AI stuff

Euro AI ensembles are pretty cold on the entire run, but not really enthused about later next week.

Sometime between 12-3 to 12-5 is the time to watch. Nothing imminent and something well south of us is possible.

The one thing that kind of concerns me, though is some signs of zonal flow across the US Canada border. I worry that bottles some of the cold up in Canada versus spilling in here more frequently. But we’ll see, just something I’ve kind of noticed.

Would be funny if that event was more for the Deep South.

We knew

Yeah some deep cold in SE Canada.

EPS and Euro AI ensemble are interesting. Seems like they hint at overrunning maybe 3-5 of December? After that the PV tries to sink through Canada while we have the SW US trough. Despite that trough, it would not shock me if there is something Deep South winter briefly before maybe we grab something perhaps the 7th on. It’s all just sort of speculation, but sometimes the 24hr ensemble mean precip fields can hint at storm tracks.

So no more East Hartford?

First week will be AN I think. Maybe after the 5th it cools off. We knew.

Useless since ensembles cover it. Flipped to what?

I’ll have to check it out. Thanks for posting this!

Flurries. Staying safe.