CoastalWx

Then make winter great again. I hate talking about the other side of the coin, but can’t ignore. I am hoping that what happened in the previous two systems happens again, but the systems next week are much more robust.

Yeah CF stuff. Maybe this will break my 6" streak.

I'm doing the board a very good service of discussing the possibilities. This is reality. You want my gut? Tuesday maybe 1-3, Thursday a mess and next weekend a mess. Latitude favored. I see nothing wrong with that outlook and it was hinted at last night. Sure it could trend colder, but do you want to discuss only cold and snow, or actually entertain completely valid situations.

I think you're in a good spot. SE NH from near PSM to Newburyport may get decent CF enhancement for a time on some guidance.

That's why I said we need next week to work out. Look I get nobody wants to hear it, but it could be a regional war thing internal to New England lol.

GFS is good all around which has been said numerous times

So you think the GFS shows jack at your place?

Nah, fire up the rood collapse thread!

He sure does.

Just saying where the GFS has that sweet spot. That's how it looks. You'll get 3-6 or 4-8 and slot a bit.

Scooter knows.

Ensembles for that time (GEFS) looked suppressed.

GFS looks pretty good. Definitely has the look of a jack route two into southern New Hampshire.

The 3K NAM has a tongue of H7 fronto well ahead and north of the main low. It's solution alone doesn't seem outrageous. South of that, you are at the mercy of WAA and hence the more constricted QPF field. Is it right, not sure. But we had something like this in early Jan 2022. There was a narrow but intense band of S+ shown by the HRRR over BOS and just south. It dropped like 4" near BOS before the main stuff even came in. It was pounding here with nothing 5 miles to my south.

Lets get 1-3" and 8" for the lakes region.

Maybe it will? Running now.

Just pointing out what could be reality. But if you wanna live in fantasyland, you guys all go ahead.

The ensembles show messiness too. Why is that hard to understand and entertain. It’s totally reasonable and much more realistic than those runs yesterday.

On a nice hard pack

Looks like sleet well past Kevin on hrrr.

I’m thinking more of messy systems potential. That is easily supported and I expect at least one or two of those over the next 15 days. Call me crazy for not buying 40” of snow in two weeks.

I look every day and talk about whatever I see. We all know the upside, let’s talk about why people shouldn’t be slapping dongs together and have them wrap around each other like a pretzel.

I know it’s Friday, but booze this early is not healthy.

This isn’t Kevin behavior. Just interpreting guidance. Why can’t someone raise concern? It’s not like I’m torch tiger pointing out a trough in the plains on the 384 hr gfs op.

some of these short waves are digging pretty far down and then bouncing north due to the southeast ridge. I can totally see some of those depictions. Are they correct? I don’t know, but completely realistic imo. We’ve had all types of scenarios last few years when everyone was claiming this or that will save us only to find a way for these waves to dig into the plains and create messy scenarios. Also, these air masses are not arctic. Low 30s for highs with sun? Only thing saving us is high pressure trying to anchor in.