As long as we have troughing near CA you certainly have a shot. Weeklies look like they want to continue that, although the signal weakens week4..but looks pretty good.
TWC went out of their way to downplay it. That's why you can't always hog one model and my argument to Kevin back on Saturday about the GFS. Yes the GFS can be wrong, but in this case along with a little bit of pattern recognition...I thought going 24-36 for NYC was a bit much.
I would slow the suicides on the hi res stuff. Non hydrostatic models may be too QG theory based. IOW, they might be trying to put low pressure near convection like a TC. Sometimes they are right, but not sure here.
GFS loves the I-95 screwjie lol. I have no idea..maybe convection processes is causing meso models to tuck lows to the east. Sometimes it's right, sometimes not.
Scott, I think maybe at worst snow gets wet at like 32-33. Just my gut. Euro is awfully wet in terms of QPF and it sometimes is a little too wet, but it has the idea I think.