CoastalWx

I’m not Will but it was a big deviation from the blocking that models showed yesterday and last night. Wouldn’t react yet, but hope it comes back at 00z. Recall the op runs last night showing snow in NC lol.

18z Nam shows just that. Almost like a WF moving in with kink in isobars at 15z.

BOX upgraded srn RI and along cstl MA to HWW. But imho, that logic should include the rest of SE MA

You can see the temps bounce up and down on the hrrr. Almost looks like a batch of heavy rain late morning ahead of LLJ core and then more scattered after until fropa. Any breaks in between and sky brightness will help boost temps a tick or two. Hrrr is like 61 here lol.

He’s around. But in his defense, the NWS is really getting hosed. It’s a tough situation for all of them and I’ll just leave it at that.

Those runs were fairly mild though. I’m going to pretend 12z didn’t happen. It’s definitely volatile.

Not sure what got into the 12z guidance, but vomit worthy today. Hope that changes.

One little change here or there is like a 30F difference for us lol.

Mild Christmas Day on euro. Just like the ones we used to know.

Yeah agree. Luckily it’s cold to start out, but shift that south a bit.

Someone is nervously melting

Teetering in Tolland

Hopefully euro and EPS hold because the other guidance taking a shit on winter at 12z.

So I have to look, but from 1/24 to 2/24 we had over 100” here. Won’t see that again.

Yeah that nice event after the 96 blizz was max pack here.

1/12 hurt. Rain after an inch of slop.

Hopefully something better than the 12z gfs and Canadian.

I actually kind of get screwed on SoP deals, especially the ones that seem to love CT-RI-TAN. I have decent latitude and I tend to pork in those events. March 15 was just scrapes and scraps here. More or less pack refreshers.

All the events we had during the epic stretch were cold events. Blue hill shines in the marginal events where that 630’ elevation really helps them stand out. The two events that really stood out to me were the longer duration event and the event during Valentine’s Day and the day after. But I was most surprised at the long duration event. They were removed from the heaviest echoes for awhile and had close to what I had. I find that hard to believe. There was no physical reason for them to have more. This isn’t an upslope deal either. Also heard from a former observer that they have peculiar ways of measuring because of wind and throws a little uncertainty…..but naturally I get that because I have wind issues too. But to have almost 25” more than I had does not make sense to me. In a winter like that the error bars are fairly high so like I said….whatever….but as someone who feels like they can sniff out oddities…that one surprised me.

Might be close. Hingham coop had 5.5” more in 14-15.

I’d like that Tuesday deal not to rip well into Canada. It’s going to go north, but would like to avoid this ending in 35F drizzle.

I think it was just a caveat, but it didn’t seem like it was a big concern.

I asked @OceanStWx about that and supposedly it had better results over GFS op (early testing anyways) but didn’t perform as well in anomalous events which one would expect when a model is training on past events. The other thing he said is that each vertical level is trained independently, so it’s possible the 500mb pattern may not match what you’d think to see for MSLP.

Yeah I can role with that. I worked that storm so it’s the only one where I felt that I could be off by 3-5”. I just remember thinking holy shit did I really get like 33-34”? Especially when I woke up to 3-4” more after that burst of snow we had from 8-11pm on the last night. So maybe I was near 130. It’s super tough in my spot when we have wind.

Think Norwell was the sweet spot but probably not 150”. Only storm where I might have undermeasured was that 3 day event in Feb.