CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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Seems like ensembles ticked a little east at 18z.
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Ha kind of a weird run. Gets occluded quick. Goes over Cape after stalling.
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18z euro stalls south of LI at hr 120.
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18z euro ai a tick NE from 12z. Not a lot different.
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Weathernerds has 950 and 975mb winds. I was impressed that 950 wasn’t much different vs 925. In fact gfs at one point was stronger at 950 vs 925 lol. Anyways doesn’t mean much now. Just need to watch intensity and track. But if this went into EWB or ACY, it’s a pretty strong hit for many areas. Difference might be gusts 55-60mph vs 65-70mph with strongest winds on N and NW side of the low.
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Yeah that was 70kt plus at 950. Don’t see that happening.
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Got to see how winds time with the tides. May take a ride down to Marshfield Saturday night.
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Gfs has like 65kts at 950 over me. That would hurt.
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Wow one thing I did notice. The winds at 925 and 950 aren’t much different on the NAM and GFS. Both models are impressive at 950. I can’t see that on the euro, but I assume it may also apply to other models and not just GFS and NAM.
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Yep we knew
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I would highly advise not getting into what the HRRR is doing from a tropical standpoint
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At least you guys could really use the rain.
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Deep mind still has two clusters but a big cluster south of eastern Long Island to Block Island. Seems to be a lot of members sort of stall and spin in that area before wobbling back northeast. Seems to be a decent consensus around that spot I think.
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It’s still uncertain to me how much wind the interior sees. You guys are gonna be wedged it’s gonna be pretty darn cool at the surface. So that’s gonna hold back some mixing there. It depends on the track and how strong this thing is.
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It would cause outages, but it’s nothing we haven’t seen before in October when there still is leaves on the trees. At least on the coast. Obviously, inland it matters.
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I don’t see 70 right now.
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Think gradient is more N to NE there.
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Basically 40-60 gusts NYC to BOS. At least drought ends.
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It’s more brief there and N winds so probably not a huge deal. If it tucked in closer to NYC before weakening it would be more impactful.
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Should be fine imo.
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Meh long way to go.
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AI ensembles still south of ACK stalled at hr 120. Not much agreement.
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Looks like we have to toss euro AI
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Euro AI maximizes well south through. Meh.
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Phones off at school
