Hope for 1-3 on the 23rd and somehow makes it through Christmas Eve night when it finally goes below 32. Other than that overnight runs meh. What a pattern.
Comes down to rain and mixing. If it rains it lowers temps and limits mixing. Ideally you want a break between 11-3p, but they’ll be times of downpours.
I’m not Will but it was a big deviation from the blocking that models showed yesterday and last night. Wouldn’t react yet, but hope it comes back at 00z. Recall the op runs last night showing snow in NC lol.
You can see the temps bounce up and down on the hrrr. Almost looks like a batch of heavy rain late morning ahead of LLJ core and then more scattered after until fropa. Any breaks in between and sky brightness will help boost temps a tick or two. Hrrr is like 61 here lol.