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CoastalWx

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. CoastalWx
    I don’t expect it but if the above happens as you said I’m out until the first 70F dews.
  2. CoastalWx
    Euro has some QPF too. Temps are borderline though. I dunno, been steadily inching north. Maybe higher spots above 400’ or so get something? Interesting to see what happens.
  3. CoastalWx
    Need Tip to describe them.
  4. CoastalWx
    Cloudburst with cloudflare
  5. CoastalWx
    I do actually. However those a have lower accuracy scores.
  6. CoastalWx
    That’s my point
  7. CoastalWx
    GEFs are better with the PNA rising, but it’s the GEFS. I don’t understand why everyone is in a rush. We know how these go.
  8. CoastalWx
    Do note that it doesn’t mean interior could get something minor and have it melted a day or two later, I’m talking about more consistent stuff.
  9. CoastalWx
    I think that is very reasonable output from that model.
  10. CoastalWx
    We don’t look at that. Especially for you, wait until after the first week.
  11. CoastalWx
    AI ensembles similar too.
  12. CoastalWx
    Weeklies better come through. lol.
  13. CoastalWx
    Still a strong -PNA at 12/3 on EPS. As we said, gonna need to be after first week of Dec I think. That ridge is too far west in the Pacific.
  14. CoastalWx
    Uncle Leo!!
  15. CoastalWx
    Yeah probably. Kevin is all distraught but it doesn’t have to be 15F either.
  16. CoastalWx
    Meh let it torch. Give everyone some good weather to travel.
  17. CoastalWx
    So you’re saying it could be earlier? If anything you lean this occurring later than models have. Especially when you need a cooperating Pacific.
  18. CoastalWx
    Yeah that’s been my target. Late in, or after first week. Some are having trouble accepting that.
  19. CoastalWx
    I would just like to see the PV more towards Hudson Bay to spread the cold a little bit further east. I think there might be a better chance for more eastern Canada cold after the 5th like you said.
  20. CoastalWx
    Yeah, that far out ensembles can be wrong, but I think that applies especially getting details like low pressure locations, etc. versus a 500 MB pattern. However, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with accepting that it could be mild next week. This is your classic EPO dump that always goes out west and in the plains first, and that implies a ridge over the east. So you also have Climo on your side along with the ensemble prediction. I don’t think that is unreasonable.
  21. CoastalWx
    What a breathe of fresh air.
  22. CoastalWx
    That’s awesome. Happy for you guys.
  23. CoastalWx
    When I say way different, getting a 500 MB pattern correct versus getting a solution like a low passing just south of you to give you snow, is way different. It is much easier to show a ridge over the East Coast 11 days out on an Ensemble versus getting specific details on an area of low pressure. It’s really apples to oranges. That’s why I mean way different.
  24. CoastalWx
    Yep agree
  25. CoastalWx
    The good stuff doesn’t happen until well after Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving week is your classic preload with the cold dump into the west and Plains and pumps up the ridge out east. No one saying 75 to 80, but it’s not gonna be cold or anything like that at all. Will average above normal.
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