RitualOfTheTrout

I was surprised they didn't have a special weather statement or something for it.

Pretty jealous, would have liked to get in on some of the heavy stuff. Glad some folks cashed in and that band materialized. Seems it made it fairly far SE for a LES band, but that dual lake fetch is usually mobey for someone. I had a burst for about 2 minutes around 5 that put down a fresh dusting.

Same, hoping to get in on the action soon. Sun is poking through right now.

Yeah I think once we get the wind shift NWS to the WNW we see an uptick again. Couple mesos hinted at some lake bands, and one briefly with Huron connection. If those materialize it would be high ratio fluff with a few localized "winners".

Good point, its a range for a reason, can't just look at the high number and run with it. This always looked like a light long duration setup but with better dendrite growth, instead its those tiny flakes that don't amount to much.

Shortwave trough extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley region. Snowfall rates have been light, with the 12Z PIT sounding showing poor lapse rates in the dendritic region. Lowered additional snowfall amounts to account for the lower snow/liquid equivalent ratios and less favorable ascent. Better jet support and divergence was south of the region across the Appalachians. The latest RAP output shows favorable omega to maintain the snow through the afternoon I was a bit worried when models adjusted south yesterday with the vort pass and seemed to lose some of the moisture if we might also lose some of the dynamics needed to maximize the liquid to snow ratio. Its such a difficult thing to pin down though I didn't want to be a deb for no reason.

Thats a pretty cool visual. You can see that lead s/w in the ns exiting the coast. To bad it wasn't more consolidated with the second piece. Probably would have phased with the southern stream earlier and this would have been a whole different animal.

Looks like they upped totals over night a little bit too, probably includes some of the lake enhanced stuff too.

That was my thought too. Higher elevations will get up slope and look to have higher qpf so that probably boosts confidence in those regions.

So you are pushing over 80 inches now? Wow..

Not much to add, generally looking between .2 and .3 total qpf. Seems like some of the higher guidance has come down more in line in that range now too . I'll dive in more tomorrow 12z when we are into the short term models. Thinking I probably jumped the gun earlier throwing the idea of warning criteria anywhere outside of the mountains though. I think advisory is still on the table.

Oh Canada! Our home and native land! True patriot love in all thy sons command. With glowing hearts we see thee rise,. The True North strong and free! Still looking like an advisory level event could be on the table, if things break right *maybe* low end warning. Need to see how things evolve as we get into the short term. Saturday looking like a deep winter day for sure, fresh snow pack, re-enforced cold shot, and hints at some lake bands / NW flow snow showers. I've been able to get outside for some quality winter fun with the dogs and kids the last three days in some form or another. The pattern may not deliver a big dog storm like some are looking for but assuming Friday works out this gets an A+ in my book. Certainly been refreshing to track and see real snow and get outside vs looking at day 14 ENS runs for hints of a workable winter pattern returning which seems like all we did last year, anyways there will be plenty of time for that next week, but at least by then confidence should be high on winters return late month.

Quick glance all 12z models have us in at least the .3 - .4 qpf range which is probably good for a 3-5 inch setup. Would be nice to improve or hold on that. Canadian looking the best as usual lol

Snowing pretty good here now. Woke up around 3:30 and only had a light coating, just eyeballing probably a little over an inch now. Looks amazing outside. Moderate snow at 16 degrees.

You're in a pretty good spot for this one. Wouldn't be shocked if you got 3-4 inches.

I agree. Pretty much all guidance gets us to this look by the end of Jan, decent +pna / -epo for cold delivery then hints blocking reloads through Feb. No reason to shut the blinds. Plus we have at least 2 snow events. Not every good pattern delivers a big storm.

It's maddening how Allegheny is always on the fringe, just to far North for those Southern systems, but not far enough north for good LES or fighting the warm tongue. Pivot that qpf another 25-50 miles and we could score a solid 4 inches. It's always a game of inches with storms I know, but always seems that is were the cutoff sets up one way or the other. Kuchera maps are probably better bet given we should be at 15:1 - 20:1 ratios vs those generic 10:1 maps.

1-2 seems reasonable. Ratios should be good to maximize what we get qpf wise. It does seem like the trend has been very tiny increments of improving as we get closer. If that continues maybe we can bump up to 2-4. Little sarcasm there. I feel like I've put a lot of energy into tracking this. Cold snow on snow in the teens and 20s is hard to beat in my book so I'll take what I can get.

Looks like 1-2 inches here overnight. Hard to tell for sure with the blowing, but at least as much on the ground as the storm last weekend. Another batch overhead now.

I agree, traffic after one of the events is a nightmare in good weather. Can you imagine how many people would get stuck? 3ft snow and 65mph winds, cars might be drifted over in the lot. You know there'd be some contingent of woefully unprepared fans too.

Temp is dropping pretty quickly now, lat or near freezing. Looks like an area of light snow moving through shortly.

We basically said the same thing. I fall into that trap myself sometimes, looking ahead on the models you get in your head January is over, but in reality it's only half way through. Plenty of time for something to come up in the medium or short range too. Sure you can identify favorable longwave patterns from 10-14 days out for when a storm might come together, but in reality its rare a storm past 7 days happens as modeled from that range.

Honestly, to put a positive spin on it, rooting for the first wave to be the focus and come in stronger is our best hope to steal a few inches. Thats been the trend, this is more of a Monday night "event" now because of that. I wouldn't totally dismiss the end of week storm either. We need the NS to dig deeper and get the storm going below us. Still to many variables to write anything off. After that, the cold look breaks down, but late Jan / early Feb still looks like we will have a reload of a workable pattern. By then a "great" winter is off the table if we fail to that point, but a good storm or two and getting close to average not out of the question. Backloaded winter given Nino climo was always the expectation.

GFS moved to Euro, CMC seems headed that way too.

Not a great day in general for snow chances. Hopefully we have some good changes tonight. Looking like an all out blizzard for the game at Buffalo. Can't imagine those snow rates with the Arctic air fetch over record warm lake Erie.