RitualOfTheTrout

I think there is still room for the precip shield to expand northward a bit if the confluence is just a little weaker without really affecting the overall track of the storm.

I'm rooting for a stronger shortwave \ more negative tilt to really amp up that moisture transport, we get that and it would take only subtle improvements on that for lack of a better word 50/50 low spinning out in the Atlantic. No matter what, models will struggle to get a handle on any individual spokes of vorticity rotating around that feature which will have a big impact (at least big from our perspective) on just how far north this can get. Don't want to look past tomorrow either which still looks good for 1-2 inches and maybe some areas of 3 if you get lucky with a follow up LES band.

Nearly perfect track on the 00z GEM. Looks like it's the furthest north right now. Another nudge north on the GFS / EURO would be ideal, but fully expect as we narrow the goal posts to see it wobbling back and forth. Into full tracking mode now, so onto the next runs.

I agree, especially if we can score a moderate event on the front end and add some light refreshers on top it will feel pretty sarisfying after the last couple years.

Tonight not disappointing, got under a semi persistent narrow band. May end up with an inch or so.

Including the ensembles, quick cliff notes is pretty much all options on the table between whiff south and so far north we get warm tongued. Fate lies in the ultimate strength of the shortwave but more important how strong and far south the low creating the confluence ends up.

Id much rather need less confluence than more at this range. Not to say its a guarantee but typically its overdone in the medium range.

I set my bar at if this good pattern is still showing legs by Jan 1st Id start to buy in. For the first time in awhile nothing has changed, and we should have a solid two weeks of tracking at least! Probably one of the more technical NWS PBZ discussions: LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Late week pattern shift will favor below normal temperature, periodic snow, and high terrain gusty wind. -------------------------------------------------------------------- All the teleconnections point toward sustained cold through the middle of January. MJO is in phase 7 and moving into phase 8, which is a cold signal for our area. GEFS show PNA heading more positive, while blocking near Greenland and high heights has the NAO going negative and suggesting west coast ridge and east coast trough. AO showing a negative trend towards a mean of -4 So the dreaded pattern of being well below normal in the coldest part of the year after two mild winters will make this feel relatively bad. Another trough expected with roughly 100 meter height falls around Friday, which helps drop 850 mb temps from -12C range toward -16C. Given the flow turns more NW, expect another round of lake effect snow showers over more of the forecast area. Saturday looks to be the coldest day this week with temperatures likely to be about 10F below normal. Uncertainty then increases substantially for Sunday and Monday. Timing and details of what looks to be a potent trough somewhere from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes area will obviously lead to a snow or ice event that could be significant. Because there is a wide spread of temperatures and QPF it is hard to know yet how much impacts there will be in the Upper Ohio River Valley.

As we would expect, what I mean by that is expect run to run changes, but you want to see some big looks on the operational runs.

Meh..

Honestly right now it might be to much of a good thing where NC gets hit, -AO, -NAO, +PNA isn't typically a wet pattern. To soon to nitpick or worry about any discrete details and I am optimistic we will have a decent stretch of winter but thats the one bit of caution I see right now. Should be plenty of NS short waves and with the lakes still warm we could see several light to moderate snows, with the chance we time something right. There are some hints at the STJ undercutting the ridge out west too which could setup a phased storm somewhere in the east.

Just a few flurries / snow showers, sun has been out most of the day. Looks like an over performer for sure for the lucky ones!

Around the city and north and west of there based on radar looking like a pretty decent setup currently. Those things can definitely over perform. Think Ill be a little to far East based on wind trajectory.

Id say I'm more cautiously optimistic for early Jan than pessimistic. Still no signs of a rug pull on the good looks so, fingers crossed. Too soon to nitpick details, but the general look could be fun.

Nice little event this morning! Probably close to an inch and its sticking to all the trees. Really festive look out there. Even some pavement caving.

Lets see if the good looks keep progressing forward. Last year they would fade away as it got close to day 10. If it does Ill start to get interested.

Extended has been pretty changeable, but generally with NS dominated pattern you aren't going to see discrete threats with any sort of accuracy past day 5 imho. Something could pop up in the short range. Unfortunately, the overall pattern this winter probably favors NS systems that don't quite dig far enough south to get us with snow, so we get setups like today, or they develop too far east and scrape the coast. Should be plenty of dice rolls though and all it takes is timing a shortwave and decent ridging out west in the right spot for something to pop. At least right now it doesn't look like a no chance cya next year for tracking, and I still think we beat last year's snowfall total, but that is a low bar lol.

Wonder if any of us will see a squal tonight, NWS HWO say some are possible. Probably will happen while I'm asleep lol

This is awesome! Thanks for sharing.

Beautiful winter evening tonight. Cold with steady light snow. Perfect for a quiet walk.

Mood flakes incoming, starting to get some flurries now. The cold feels so much better when it's overcast and there are at least a few flakes in the air right? I slept through it all as well, by the looks of it things this morning it was pretty short lived though, so probably not worth getting 3 hours sleep over imho. Keeping an eye on next Wed too, things have been pretty changeable. As always best to not get locked into anything mentally and not invest a lot of time until you get into the short range and sorta just checkout if it looks bad for 7 days plus. I found that makes this hobby much more enjoyable for myself.

Looks interesting even if snow totals won't be the main story for us. Wish it wasn't happening at night though. low pressure passes to the north, a cold front will cross the region late Wednesday evening and into overnight time period. There may be a brief period of wintry mix south of Pittsburgh before Arctic air overtakes the region. Widespread snow showers and dropping temperatures (by 10 to 15 degrees) are expected between 7pm to 11pm Wednesday. Snow ratios will rapidly increase from 8:1 to 16:1 in 6 hours. Therefore snow character will start as wet and transition into a powder consistency. With enhanced instability ahead of the front, 25J/kg to 50J/kg, snow bands could be could considered "intense" and take on snow squall characteristics. Based on the NAM, the snow squall parameter is maximized between 06Z to 09Z across eastern OH/western PA based on steep low-level lapse rates, strong wind gusts, available instability, and enhanced low-level moisture (70 to 90%) within 0-3km. Short-fused products (i.e. Snow Squall Warnings) may be needed for drivers before or during the morning rush hour. Winter Storm Watches have been issued to cover the areas where confidence is higher in lake effect bands, higher snowfall totals from upsloping, and blowing snow. Given a strong pressure gradient with a potentially closed upper-level low, gusty winds are expected to start Wednesday evening into Thursday with a passing LLJ (50-60kt). The potential peak wind gusts are expected 5pm Wed through 4am Thurs. However, lingering gusts may continue in the higher terrain due to mountain wave activity. Areas that don`t get upgraded into a Winter Storm Warning may need a Wind Advisory to cover the threat of strong wind gusts (46+mph)

Certainly does not look like we will maximize, but for early December its better than 50s. I have pretty low expectations for the winter overall and if we manage 30 inches it will feel like a blockbuster after last year. With it being neutral-ish Enso wise I'm thinking the MJO will be more of a driver in modulating whatever the background state this winter will have. If this early December pattern is a hint to what that state may be there is reason for some optimism. Its likely going to be a battle needing the Northern stream shortwaves to cut underneath as I don't expect much help from the STJ.

Looks like this week is your typical nickel and dime setup. Snow possible most days with Thursday maybe the best chance at something measurable. Should look and feel like winter, so no complaints.

To bad we don't have a favorable trajectory off the lakes this weekend but as rd stated into next week looks like a few chances, even a couple of clippers.