RitualOfTheTrout

Yeah it's back, pretty steady heavier light snow if that makes any sense lol. Those big puffy dendrites though so it adds up. Probably 1-2 since midnight but hard to tell with the blowing. Looks like 2 or 3 clippers next week. I always preferred the "Saskatchewan Screamer" If I was ever musically inclined I would have started a punk band with that name. lol

That northern stream piece is what's going to give us whatever we get. Honestly, the big phased look was probably going to fringe us, maybe we end up worse off with that look so this might end up better for "more snow" anyways.

Yeah, I feel like when I was a kid we almost always had a stretch like this in winter. I remember getting smaller-ish storms, and sled riding then followed up like every other day getting another 1-3 or 2-4 with snow on the ground adding fresh powder to our sled runs lol I'm sure my memory makes it seem more frequent than it probably was but this is the type of stretch I've been missing. Still wouldn't be mad if we scored a bigger storm somewhere along the way.

Getting moderate snow here now, wind is really blowing too! These types of days are our bread and butter lol

Anyone getting any decent snow out of that band in central Allegheny right now? Looks to be slowly drifting east, so hope to catch a little bit of it. This NW flow setup *could* over the next couple days end up being better for some than the storm. (Not saying much when your bar is 1 inch but hey!) Still gotta love snow on snow with temps in the 20s.

Other than maybe nowcasting some pieces of vorticity in the NW flow interacting with some lake moisture this week, there really isn't anything to watch until whatever happens this weekend. I'm almost wondering if the weekend thing would be better off for our chances if that energy in the SW gets stuck there and picked up by the next NS wave after it. Not worth parsing anything after the weekend other than it looks like the window for winter weather will remain open for awhile.

Neat to see the GFS phasing the energy, really need that to happen more quickly though so the trough goes more neutral / negative to pull it NW. As it is its pretty positively tilted at hr 120. The whole thing is a long shot to begin with, even more so with GFS being the only one showing it to this degree (and we still need a cleaner faster phase).

Same here, really got bright out there and see the sun breaking out. Looks like the "main" event is about to wrap up around here. Models keep the back-end stuff associated with the upper low passage South of us, but hey given they missed the banding by about 100 miles to far north maybe we get lucky!

It does look like the radar is filling back in to the South as the Northern extent is collapsing. Eyeballing somewhere between 1-2 inches here. Not worth getting dressed to go out and measure. At least we don't have to worry about mixing right?

Very light snow here, maybe a dusting so far. Radar looks sorta broken up, maybe it will fill in.

GFS a tick north, or at least a little more expansive on the northern fringe too.

This looks to end up being one of those frustrating storms watching radar returns fade as they move north. Im expecting 1-2 max for my yard. Im sure next time we need south trend it will end up north over Erie lol

Good point, its currently 19 degrees with light snow falling after scoring 3-4 yesterday and a solid wintry period forecast for at least the next 2 weeks and at least some snow tomorrow night. A lot of recent winters I think we would kill to have that.

Looking at 12z to see if we get any meaningful expansions north, this is typically when the slow bleed north starts to screw us. This time WAA being stronger than forecast may help is unless this is the one time its not. Im really only looking to not be on the fringe and have a reasonable shot at 3-5.

My guess is maybe the Euro ticks north, but feels like maybe going to meet in the middle with GFS. Not cooked yet, but starting to think the possibility of a warning event north of i70 is fading.

The view out my window... This squall is crazy!! 20 minutes later... Still puking snow!

It wouldn't shock me if the precip shield ticks North as we close in barring some big change in one of the key players. 18z NAM looks pretty similar to the 12z GFS. Gotta get the Euro more onboard though.

Squall on my doorstep...

NWS thinks those squalls will make it into our area. Fingers crossed! As of noon, cold front has reached the eastern edge of our CWA and with its passage, the widespread snow has ended. In the wake of the front, snow showers will continue in NW flow as lapse rates steepen. ACARS soundings note 50-100j/kg of CAPE upstream where a band of intense snow has developed over CLE. Visibilities have dropped to 1/4 or less in the band, which has prompted SPS and SQWs. Latest CAMs do suggest this band will make it into our forecast area before gradually weakening as it shifts east. Outside of the band, deep moisture in the DGZ andi instability will maintain convective showers for much of the afternoon. Will leave the remainder of the advisory/warnings asis given the potential impacts in the heavier showers and squalls but also issue short fused products as appropriate for awareness.

Looks like some more intense stuff starting to fire up near Erie, should be interesting to see how well that translates down here.

Looks like everything trended South on the 6z runs with Euro being about an inch north of the city if you remove today's snow. Not the look we want to see continue. GFS at 00z was to amped for comfort last night but still looks to be the furthest north at 6z.

Im certainly looking forward to now cast and radar watching and if a squall hits grabbing the dog leash and heading out for a walk.

If say GFS is the Northern most goalpost and CMC is the Southern most Im with you, may not bullseye but will a solid event.

Yeah, the more amped solution I was rooting for can stop now... but damn if this isn't a sweet pass...

Nice winter day out there today as well. Overcast with flurries and light snow most of the day with more on the way. Tomorrow could be interesting if you find yourself under one of the more intense bands in the afternoon: .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Winter Weather Warning and Advisories in effect for most of the region Friday until late Saturday morning. - High confidence in totals for the high terrain with potential for warning criteria accumulations along the I-80 corridor. - Period of convective heavy snow showers are possible during daylight hours that may lead to rapid visibility restrictions and slick roadways. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Rapid transition of an upper level trough through the Ohio River Valley is expected Friday morning. Trough dynamics and weak frontogenetic forcing are expected to form a shield of snow that will be mainly focused along and south of I-70 for roughly the 4am-10am period. As the trough axis exits, steep lapse rates plus developing lake fetches may foster a more convective snow shower environment with favorable DGZ growth as weak instability develops within that ideal zone. Expect widespread (trending toward scattered) heavy snow showers that may exhibit snow squall characteristics (rapid visibility restrictions, quick accumulations) which could lead to tricky travel conditions; notably this ideal convective shower timeframe stretches from roughly 10am-6pm and the incorporates the afternoon commute. Finally, further veering of boundary layer winds to the NW Friday evening into Saturday morning will favor lake streamers, (or bands), that could create localized heavy snow but tend to favor northwest PA and the higher terrain.