RitualOfTheTrout

That would be a very destructive ice storm. I honestly don't remember the last big ice, maybe VD 2007? I recall a good bit of ice overnight before switching back to snow the next day. Before that probably early 90s. Big ice is tough to maintain in our area but if we have a big high locked in with a block funneling cool dry air in to offset latent heat release and temps stay in the 20s it could happen. Moderate rain at 31.5 in the middle of the day won't really be that bad despite models showing it all as zr.

I don't think anyone can argue the climate is warming, the oceans are warmer sea ice is less etc. It seems niave to think man's industry inducing tons of carbon into the atmosphere over decades has zero effect. Whether this is in conjunction with longer term cycles of warmer / cooler climate and we see a slight cooling as the pendulum swings the other way, who knows. The other question is would the climate have stayed stable forever without any interference, seems unlikely. Have we hit a point we're warmth is now like a fission reaction gone critical in that there's no stopping it as the cryosphere melts and oceans warm releasing tons of once stable carbon into the atmosphere? I have no idea. I do think there is a goldilocks period so to speak in that more moisture in the atmosphere and stronger storms with still cold enough air could lead to bigger storms with more snow. Also as oceans warm the baroclonic zone shifts inland along the coast making more favorable tracks for us likely while still cold enough so again bigger storms. All this while our more predictable nickel and dime snows become less frequent and we are left to boom or bust based on the previous 2. Over time the spacing between good storms / winters gets longer and longer. I don't know how fast this might happen from where we are now, maybe we are already at the tail end of goldilocks period? I know this winter the raging PAC jet (presumably fueled by warmer water) is torching Canada so air masses are maritime in origin or already moderated before they arrive. I'm not sure how this portends to future winters here but worth monitoring. If we have indeed hit the runaway warming I'd expect drastic changes to become evident over relatively short climate timescales and at that point the concern over snow is really the least of our problems.

Light snow has been coming down for a couple hours, but to warm, nothing accumulating yet. Feels crazy to say that in mid January at night. Living in low elevation spot is brutal with marginal temperatures. Looks like some slightly better returns on radar, might wake up to whitened landscape again.

Another moderate to heavy burst moving in now. Being close to sunset should yield some better staying power now. Roads are even starting to cave and winds picking up a bit too.

I ended up with maybe 3/4 -1 inch but it quickly melted, back to bare ground aside from some slush in some grassy areas. It was coming down pretty good for awhile there.

Speaking of the fog, I woke up around 2am last night and glanced out the window noticing the milky glow of the street lights and did a double take, thought there was heavy snow coming down, nope only fog lol. I think I'm ready for some real snow after that, hopefully we can see some moderate rates even if only in periodic brief interludes over the next several days as the train of NS waves rides through the area.

No snow here today, going to have to wait until tomorrow it looks like. Not surprised, with these rain to snow in marginal temperatures my yard is usually liquid longer than anticipated. Looks like a few chances for light snow over the next week, but probably another week at least until something bigger is possible.

It is, but there is some lag from peak with respect to influence in the atmosphere. I'm not sure there is a way anyone knows for sure what that lag time is as it's going to be tied to other seasonal variables that may or may not constructively interfere. There seems to be 2 school s of thought as I read people who are way more qualified to analyze these things, one is La Nina influence takes over and the easy is warmer the other is the typical lag effects from the SSW hit in Feb and we get blocking and a colder outcome. That all being said, as we get into this upcoming weekend through rest of January all models generally agree on a more active pattern setting in conducive for snow. Edit: psuhoffman has a good post (as usual) on page 39 in the mid atlantic thread illustrating the possible gradient pattern I was talking about earlier.

Color me skeptical right now, I don't doubt we get colder and have a brief period of NW flow "events" but we are getting to the point in the season where typical Nina response (Western trough, SE Ridge) conflicts with big cold in the East. Maybe the SSW reshuffles the deck so to speak or provides a resurgence of blocking but I'd bet the big cold look is muted as we get closer in time. If we keep the blocking it would probably setup a gradient type pattern with storms riding along the gradient as it wobbles N to South coinciding with -NAO / SE Ridge strength. Maybe some overrunning WAA type storms. This would probably be more towards the end of the month and if it sets up to far north of your desired location it's a warm wet / cold dry type of setup. One could argue we haven't really had the typically expected Enso response in the past few years due to other factors so the entire base for my argument may be moot anyways. Just throwing some gueses out there right now to stir debate since we will be quiet weatherwise for a bit.

Agree, Still some chance we could see minimal precipitation Tuesday but more like the confluence rips it apart. Seems pretty likely we twiddle our thumbs for another week. Glad Winter came in like a lion with a big December or wasting these first two weeks of January would be more frustrating.

No discrete threats to follow yet, but looks like we should have a period with a more favorable pattern coming up. That could change (the no discrete threat part) in short notice though with all the short waves flying around. I wouldn’t mind some clippers with some enhancement off the still relatively warm lakes as appetizers for some bigger storms later in the month either. I do think we enter a period where misses South / East are more likely when blocking peaks.

Happy New Year everyone! Looks like some solid blocking is showing up on the models. Here's to hopefully more tracking and more importantly big hits in our near future!

Not terribly informative but a "fun" read while we wait for the next snow threat to track: https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/12/29/pittsburgh-weather-snow-winter/?utm_campaign=trueAnthem Manual&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2M6BlBRt27u7OKOMsfswAWa5TvFsAgbDNHj_Pz7SKTf8e-4Mdw4ZkLkzk

I'm seeing alot of discussions / debate on whether the higher heights in Greenland are really due to a "true" NAO or just the result of way above normal temperatures inflating past average 500mb heights for this time of year. Still more data says that the precursor to a SSW / PV split is typically above average temperatures for us. All above my pay grade but what I do see is a general lack of cold air. It's odd to see rain on the NW side of a low pressure in early January anywhere let alone up into Canada. I think we just need more time to see how this evolves. Do we end up with the typical Nina response the rest of winter (Nina's are usually front loaded) or does some other factor combined with the a hopefully weakening Nina yield different results. As always expect models to struggle during any change.

Next window to watch for sure although 00z Euro and 12z Canadian ops don't really support and even GFS has shifted west. Still 6-7 days out so who knows how it will play out.

Still snowing, nothing beats an all day snow, what a perfect Christmas Day weather wise. Snow is picking up again with temperatures in the teens. All out winter right now.

Heavy wind driven sleet changing over to snow now. Hoping for 4 but will be happy with 2. Merry Christmas all.

It would be for sure, I think it being Christmas day and we will at least salvage a white one helps too. That being said I'm still tad aggravated to see 6-8 so close.

I was thinking the same thing, NAM had change to snow between 9 and 10 and that looks pretty good. It's crazy how Allegheny always seems to have such a gradient North to South or East to West and this storm looks to be the same.

Not a great setup for LES in our area, the flow tomorrow will turn more WSW which should cut off lake moisture for us.

This 100%. Baring a total failure in models we should all at a minimum have a fresh 2 inches on the ground for Christmas day as well as flakes in the air and cold temperatures throughout. Hallmark movie scenery should be had by all. I do think areas east of the city but outside the ridges will be on the lower end which includes my yard. Further West you go from the city towards Ohio stand a better chance to bust high but models will struggle nailing down a 25 mile shift one way or the other.

NWS PBZ pretty bullish too, 4-6 inches: Timing for the change over looks to be sometime between 6pm-11pm With the GFS being quicker and NAM / Canadian a bit slower. Part of me is actually hoping for a later switch (assuming it doesn't affect totals). I think it will be an awesome transformation from bare ground to winter wounder land when the kids wake up.

GFS seems to have sped up the front, now coming through Thursday morning, seems it doesn’t really spin up a wave along the front until later which is probably why it’s a bit faster. Is it right, who knows?

Just had to lol when I saw SWPA rain while it snows in every other direction.

GFS (and other models) are showing a wave of low pressure develop and ride up along the strong cold front projected to move through. It's all heavily timing dependent, front has to clear just as the wave moves past your latitude then deepen and slow the progression of the front to see those big totals. Don't get invested in anything you see with this, it won't be resolved until very short lead times. As for a white Christmas, (I'm just going with the ground is covered, not the official 1 inch of new snow mark) odds are better than normal looking ahead. I think our current snow pack stands a good chance of holding up at least until Wednesday. We have generally overcast, with temperatures in the low to mid 30s with potentially reinforcing shots of light snow added on top Sunday / Monday. If we can drop below freezing overnight combined with weakest sun angle of the year practically and a higher liquid equivalent snow pack we should be good. My only concern is Wednesday, we could make a run into the mid 40s maybe 50. A screaming SW wind with high dew points will eat a snow pack fast. Even if that does happen though, there is a chance with post frontal snow (even if the best case scenario doesn't happen) and some LES behind we could add enough new snow to recover the ground if it came to that. Just my 2 cents..