RitualOfTheTrout

Still looking like some possible impacts tomorrow. NWS thinking less than an inch, but with temperatures this cold a brief burst of heavy snow will deteriorate roads pretty quickly especially later afternoon / early evening. Along with cold weather, a potential shortwave is expected to cross the region Tuesday afternoon and increase the threat of hazardous travel due to snow. Snowfall amounts are expected to stay below Advisory criteria (likely 0.5 to 1.0 inches in isolated areas; a trace to 0.5 elsewhere). However, brief periods of low visibility from heavy snow can`t be ruled out. The 0-3km CAPE values range from 25J/kg to 50J/kg along the trough axis. Hi-Res guidance also has some noted potential stronger bands (reflectivity on the radar could measure 20DBZ to 30DBZ at times) between 3pm to 6pm (including Pittsburgh). If models remain consistent with this potential outcome, short- fused special weather statements and/or snow squall warnings may be needed to highlight the threat.

Well this didn't age well, may have missed that specific band, but made up for it between 11pm last night and now. When I left the house at 4:45 I had 2 fresh inches since 11pm and that heavier band was about to pivot through which I ended up driving through, heavy snow and 12 degrees, cars sliding all over on 28 pretty crazy, then when I got to the city clear as a bell until I hit another band. Late save by the lakes on this one. Looks like flow is rapidly shifting westerly so the fetches will get cutoff shortly but the arctic air will be spilling in. Wondering if this may be our last bout of LES assist as this incoming airmass should finish icing Erie over and start building up quickly on the others.

Getting some intermittent light to occasionally moderate bursts as what's left of that band finally made it. Much higher ratio / better flake structure than any point today. Should add another half inch or so. Too bad the arctic front is coming through at 3am, could be fun, although Ill be up for work at 430, roads will probably be dicey. The current 00Z sounding alludes the the heavily anticipated arctic frontal passing overnight tonight, with a tropopause of 500mb with dry stratospheric air above that. An adiabatic, nearly saturated layer is observed from the surface to roughly 800mb, which has been responsible for the convective snow during the early overnight hours tonight. The forcing for snow has mostly been the stark surface convergence as the cold air bullies is way in along the front. The frontal passage will cross tonight, leading to dramatic drops in temperatures. The most likely passage time will be roughly 9pm for Zanesville, 1am for Wheeling, 3am for Pittsburgh and Morgantown, 5am for Latrobe, and 7am for DuBois. Flow is expected to be progressive enough to result in minimal totals. Less than 1" of additional snow may be possible along the front on in dry, fluffy, high- ratio convective snow. Visibility may drop as low as 1/2 mi, but even lower visibilities are possible in blowing snow. Observations in Ohio indicate winds gusting as high as 20mph to 30mph along and behind the frontal passage. Webcams show snow-covered roads.

Ugh.. as expected completely fizzled before making it to westmoreland.

Hope that band holds together and moves east spending some time over my yard. Looks like it originated off Huron, but may be losing its link as the winds shift. Not super confident it makes it here.

Looks like more light snow should develop as the afternoon progresses. Somewhere between a quarter to half an inch so far.

Well if radar trends hold it looks like models are going to nail the cutoff pretty well. If we were on the SE edge praying for a hold you know what would have happened.

Thats where I'm at, 1-2. Other than helping this Jan with below average for the record books the lack of a decent storm preceding or much if any snow during I'm already sort of looking forward to moderating by next weekend. Usually a true arctic airmass like what is coming has squalls or something when it goes through but not seeing anything like that.

That would be nice, Euro and GFS have us right on the fringe. Another 50 mile NW shift on those two would put most of us into a 2-4 range. This time there isn't a giant vortex or Northern stream interference so maybe we get a continued subtle trend north as we close in.

Sleet and zr here currently. Light glaze on the car, pavement seems fine. Expect it will be pretty short lived before plain rain takes over.

Canadian models owe us something after all the headfakes showing a big storm over the years only to cave to the no snow models. Time to pay the bill and score a coop maybe? Lol

Keeping an eye on Saturday, NAM looked a little thumpy before mix. I hope we can hold onto the pack through the arctic outbreak just to keep snow otg streak going. Getting another inch or two before we warm up enough for rain / mix would go a long way to helping with that.

City looks to get raked, just in time for rush hour.

RGEM and CMC are the furthest NW, but even those we are fringed a bit. Pinpointing when the boundary gets hung up is not a high confidence forecast but looks like GFS finally jumped onboard of there even being a storm. Looks like a pretty good slug about to move through. Planning on leaving work early, but may need to head out a bit earlier to enjoy those heavier returns (and avoid the evening commute disaster that is Pittsburgh traffic lol).

Ill be at work, oh who am I kidding ill be looking out the window and watching radar either way lol. It will be interesting to see if anyone gets lucky with banding.

Thursday does look a little more robust right now. Could be another 1-2 for sure. Closing in on a fresh inch right now.

Light snow and temperature at 16, deep winter! Maybe we can squeeze a couple inches out of these next 2 light events. Saturday looks mixy, maybe it can trend better. Next week still looks interesting too.

I think after 2 solid weeks of relatively deep cold and NW flow I'll be ready to roll the dice on something with higher upside. Once the lakes start to ice over this current pattern will lose most of any potential upside options outside of a vigorous clipper or miller B type redevelopment. Now that the we look to be heading more towards a +NAO and -EPO I'd expect some cold outbreaks but they should be more progressive. A more moisture laden or overrunning event event even if we mix or rain for a portion wouldn't be the worst, of course an all snow event would be fine too. The type of setup being advertised is more likely to end up further NW outside of some perfectly timed northern stream vort squashing everything so seeing things a little more SE right now isn't the worst. Never any guarantees so hopefully the interesting looks for next week hold. Crazy how balmy 31 degrees felt this morning.

Dang, to bad the gfs ends at 384, it was in the middle of an epic storm, we are getting a major ice storm after 8-12 of snow with more fun on the way. (For entertainment purposes only)

Measured between half an inch to 3/4. Disappointing from a totals perspective but refreshed the wintry scenery at least.

Finally getting some light snow.

Hrrr has the hole modeled pretty well, also shows it filling in later but I think the damage is done given we've missed a couple hours of snow already.

Hole is pretty much right over my house.

Yeah, I was a little worried several short range models showed that better banding NW of the city. Some areas already with 2-4 on the ground that weren't even in an advisory until they just recently upgraded. Still need to see how it plays out but nothing but a few flurries here so far. Probably will be lucky to get much more than an inch.

Everything mostly in agreement for a general 1-3. Ill take it.