RitualOfTheTrout

For a real ice storm you need temps in the upper 20s or lower and light to moderate precipitation. Heavy rain and 31 degrees 95% is just runoff yet models show as accumulated ice. If there’s snow on the ground to soak it up and refereeze that can make an interesting setup but it’s my least favorite wintry precip. I’d take a heavy sleet storm any day. When was our last real ice storm? what ever happens it looks like North and West of the city is the place to be for better odds again.

Color me shocked, GFS never showed us in a good spot, Euro slowly moved same way. At least you won't have to worry about washing your car with 1+ inches of rain. The overall look the first 2 weeks of Feb has degraded some vs the broad cold trough we saw a few days ago on the models.

If I had to make a call right now I'd say this will primarily be rain except for the back edge Thursday night into Friday. Euro op and Ukmet really the only 2 that show the front getting far enough South to put us on the cold side as the second wave ride up the boundary. The Euro ENS mean looks more like the GFS. Still far enough out to see a change though just how it looks right now.

Gotta sniff the rain if you want the big totals.. at least that's how the saying goes... I think? lol. I don't have a good feeling on how far South the boundary makes it, but it seems the trend has been lower heights in the east and the winter thus far has featured faster progressive storms so that bodes well vs an amped up Midwest cutter from a few days ago. If that continues it's good to see we have wiggle room for more SE adjustments. Seems GFS is furthest NW with the boundary, CMC is in-between and Euro further SE.

Seems like some runs are showing the storm come out in pieces which increased our odds of seeing winter weather of some sort vs rain with a big consolidated low. Also keep an eye on that piece of energy that goes by to the North. I'd say we want that stronger and further south just ahead of the storm, that should lower heights in the east so we get the front through before all the pieces of energy ride up.

That's an incredible discussion... Can't even imagine what those folks are about to experience.

Maybe longer... Was 93 our last blizzard warning or did we get one in 94 or 96?

Looks like it's delayed by an hour per Levi the site owner, so if you are on the edge of your seat for that data pay site or pivotal still your best bet. I rarely stay up for the Euro anyways and if a storm is imminent always have other sources.

Hhhmmm... Quick google translation says -PNA. Am I close?

Did anyone notice Tropical Tidbits now has Euro precip maps / 500 maps (including 6z / 18z runs)? I prefer TT interface to Pivotal, maybe I've just been using it longer and I'm old lol but I was happy to see that addition.

I noticed some big swings too, it was -8 at my house, dropped to -12 at a local spot that radiates well, then saw +7 in and around the city. I crossed the Rankin bridge going towards west mifflin around 6am and it was 0 but also had some "pollution effect" pixie dust falling out of the plumes of smoke from nearby industry. So much so the bridge had a coating on it. Really interesting. I know 7 or 8 years ago NWS posted radar of a snow band that developed off the steam towers from one of the nuclear power plants, I don't think I saved it though.

Yeah, baring some huge unforeseen variable we have no chance at anything from the main storm. That's from a northern stream feature that will eventually phase in with the bigger storm that may crush NE. This is where we should put or focus, maybe a nice 1-3 / 2-4 event could be had. After this weekend it does appear the pattern starts to re-shuffle and we will lose our deep winter cold with snow on snow on snow but remains to be seen if its a disaster like December or we can get more of a gradient type pattern with warm and cold days mixed in. Warm ahead of any Midwest storm, then cold for a few days after and maybe time a wave to ride along the boundary, rinse and repeat. I haven't focused much past this weekend though so maybe things have changed.

Measured about 2, had 3 yesterday so up to 5. Score another 3 later in the week and I tie the big storm.

That had todays clipper in it too. Haven’t kept up but think CMC was on its own at 12z with the western track.

Steady light to moderate snow, with some higher returns looking to move over head soon.

Light snow starting up again.

Yeah I'm with you, but tracking is what we do so I'll be paying attention anyways lol

Not necessarily stronger in terms of it being lower in pressure, but stronger sooner allows heights to rise out front in response and you get the trough to go nuetral / negative sooner which would lead to further west track. IMHO the ridge axis out west is to far east, move that west and sharpin the trough, and who knows. It's a long shot at this point but stranger things have happened. Maybe another n/s shortwave appears and drops in and pulls it NW like the last storm.

“Cocks Pistol” lol J/K, I agree, going to need to see some inland tracks today if there is any chance.

Right now we get a light snow from the northern piece of energy. Not sure we can see enough changes to get anything from the main storm. Would really need a big change in the ridge out west to get a clean fast phase so the trough can go negative much sooner. It's a big ask but with no blocking and little confluence if it comes together right no reason it can't be further west.

I've been getting an unexpected steady light snow this morning. Picked up a fresh coating of big fluffy flakes.

Ended up with a solid 3 here. I'll echo others sentiments, this was a perfect winter day. Snow on snow, it all fell mostly during daylight hours, no temp issues, a few bouts of heavy snow, forecasts were spot on. Let's see if we can score another win tomorrow.

Wow, briefly heavy snow just blew threw here on that backend band. Almost like a mini squall line. Will go out to measure once that winds down.

Yeah same, just nw of the city looks to be in the steadier stuff. Returns on radar really lighten up as they move east. Almost like there is a wall on my backyard lol

You can't get emotional every time a storm doesn't reach max potential, if that's your low bar you will be disappointed 99% of the time. This has been a 1-3 type deal with maybe a narrow swath of 2-4 from everything I've looked at for a couple days. There looks to have been a slight North move of the heavier stuff which likely puts areas South of the city closer to the lower end of the range but still within expectations. 1-3 doesn't mean you get three, may you only get the 1. NWS may be slow to adjust but they also can't be upgrading / canceling advisories / warnings every 6 hours. Most of the time their consistency pays off but on occasion it does lead to some pretty bad busts. How you react to a storm in terms of preparation isn't really altered if you get 8 instead of 12 or 3 instead of 1. Anyways, steady light snow has been falling for a about an hour here. Picked up a coating so far.