RitualOfTheTrout

I'm with you, not buying my ticket yet for the polar express snowapoaloza tour yet. I'd also take anything with the GEFS with a grain of salt in terms of just *how* cold as those have had a cold bias in the medium / long range (GFS too) so if they are the coldest and most extreme vs EPS / GEPS I know which way I'd hedge. I'm not trying to deb on a return to cold, if we are gonna do it then late Feb / early March is still good so lets do it and do it right. I'm comfortable saying by the end of Feb we probably drop below normal again but how that translates to snow nobody knows yet and really by March 1st snow is all that matters. Your not going to get sustained cold and snow cover but a moisture laden over running event or closed bomb would sure be fun. The storm at the end of next week (24th - 25th) looks like our typical slop storm, burst of snow and quick change over to rain / mix while areas east stay snow with CAD and areas North avoid the warm tongue. Certainly plenty of time for changes but anything before that looks like primarily a rain outside of the little clipper / cold front this Saturday afternoon.

Gone but unfortunately probably won't ever be forgotten.

500mb I think is fairly accurate at day 8-10 still, at least for a general idea of where ridging / troughing will be. Temperatures and discrete storm threats no; however that's not to say if you see ridging in the east it's wrong to assume odds favor above average but I wouldn't expect modeled 2m temperatures to be a solid bet at that range. I'm not saying it's wrong either, sometimes extremes do verify but there's a good reason outlooks start to weigh climo more the further out you get.

I don't want to go to spring but if the pattern being advertised comes to fruition we won't have much chance and I'd rather not have a bunch of 35 degree rain storms. Certainly we will have cold shots still and maybe we time something right. I agree with you about March, go big or go home. Give me a 6-12+ paste bomb or don't bother. I'll take little 2-4 / 1-2 inch type stuff all day long Mid December through Mid Feb especially if it's staying cold and we are adding to a snow pack. But something like that vaporizes by noon in March. Really detracts from my enjoyment when snow is melting before you even start shoveling. Speaking of snow pack, it's still holding on in my yard but barely.

Honestly, if winter is over I hope we torch in the 50s / 60s / 70s til May. No need to be strung along with an almost good enough pattern. No denying we had a good stretch. Hearing Enso is leaning towards a Nino next winter. If we can buck typical late Nina winter climo and keep tracking cold and snow Im all for it. But it looks like tropical forcing is heading into warm phases, PV coupling with the troposphere so cold will get locked up. Could definitely see some much above average temps if that plays out.

Probably an end to the snow cover stat too. It was technically better that last few storms with the GFS being to far SE at this range giving us more hope so there's that right?

Well that de-escalated quickly. Seemed like if the 6z GFS look improved a bit more we might see something, but it went the other way. In other news around 200 hours GFS is setting up another 33 and rain event. Evolution looks almost identical lol. Luckily at that range it will be different in 6 hours anyways.

Hard not to like the setup this weekend on the 6z GFS, ridge out west allows the trough axis a bit further west. If we can time 2 shortwaves right something could go boom.

Radar keeps juicing up, nice steady light snow coming down. Picked up a fresh coating, maybe we can grab a half inch stat pad. If nothing else another snow globe morning.

Yeah I was like 12ish and really started getting into trying to understand the science behind weather. Checking out books at the library, reading the encyclopedia etc. My ideal winter was formed in the 92-96 period, no wonder I have unrealistic expectations lol.

Yeah, going to really have to score a big win and maybe do some bonus work to bring the GPA up after totally failing December. If winter ended today I'd agree with the C+. Snow pack and cold stretch and all the days with snow falling all day with snow on snow was really enjoyable. Plus we scored on the front end of it. Still snow on the ground from the MLK storm. Pretty steady tracking of threats through the period too. The post tracking blues are in full effect for me. The clippers at the end of the week aren't looking as good, and some signs the western ridge reload may not last. We've been kicking the can on any major warmup and eventually it has to happen. This morning was beautiful though with the snow sparkling in the bright sunlight and bitter cold.

Starting next weekend the pattern looks conducive for the next storm with the ridge in the west amping up. I'd think we start to see storms showing on the operational as we close in like the Euro. Of course where and when are totally up in the air. Prior to that looks like a clipper type system Thursday - Friday time.

Moderate snow again, at this rate the little trough swinging through has really over performed.

So in December 2009 we missed a decent storm to the SE. That year had insane blocking. If I remember correctly the Feb 2010 storm initially basically missed everyone north of the Mason Dixon line on the models. Someone created a detour sign for PA graphic as a joke then subsequent runs started moving North. It was a storm that kept getting better on the models right up through the event. So much so local weather forecasts busted terribly low, even forecasting less than what was already on the ground at one point.

That band that went through earlier was sweet. Briefly heavy snow with big fluffy dendrites. Probably picked up a fresh inch with this latest batch, I prefer daylight snow unless it’s late season / marginal temps but watching those big fluffy flakes fall through the street light is fantastic.

Ooff good call, I didn’t even realize I clicked on the banter / complaint thread hence me posting that obs report. At this point this thread is where this discussion belongs so I have no issue if y’all want to keep going at it. I just hate when it starts clogging the other thread which it sometimes does. Not saying you or anyone specifically. Anyways I’ll see myself back to the other thread.

Yeah lol, I saw all the new replies and thought maybe something popped up on the 18z GFS or the radar was lighting up all over… but no.

So I think part of the problem is the term bust is relative, to me it means epic fail like you get nothing or up to a quarter of what was forecast. A storm can be a bust in your backyard but generally area wide be good. There are storms that fail and screw the whole area, that to me is a bust. Let's just move on, I get where you are coming from. My yard got 8 and was always in the lower ranges so to me, it wasn't a total fail. I think people are tired of the debate, some maybe even trying to rile you up. Let's just all agree to disagree and end the debate on the storm that shall not be named and focus on the present / future.

Absolutely ripping snow right now, heaviest of this event. Big fluffy dendrites, going to add up quick.

That band in NW Allegheny looks impressive, 35dbz returns on radar. Hopefully something can fill in for areas further east.

Yeah, this looks similar to the January pattern. All 3 (GEPS, GEFS and EPS) show something similar. You can see the trough axis is a bit further west than January and some signs of southern stream action too. Not hard to envision a shortwave diving out of Canada over the ridge and meeting up with something ejecting out of the SW. This upcoming week is more a reshuffle, and we get this look by late next week so it's not some day 15 fantasy, it's already under day 10.

We should all give ourselves a pat on the back. Washing your laundry in cold water is environmentally friendly so I can only assume washing your car in 32.1 degree water also qualifies. TIDE approves of this message.

Looks like for the most part the advisories and warnings panned out well for the ice etc. Overall a well forecast storm, models did pretty well. GFS was to cold and aggressive pushing the front through but generally was the first to catch on that there would be some impact here once all the models had flipped way NW. I thought the 3K NAM did well with temperatures once we got 12-24 hours out. It nailed us basically sitting at 33 degrees for 12-16 hours yesterday. I didn't flip to below freezing until somewhere between 11:30-12:00am then when I checked the radar at 2am it was evident the front was progressing quicker than it had all day and the back-edge of the more steady stuff was already encroaching into OH. All that being said, for my yard nothing but a nuisance. Only thing memorable will be what could have been. 36 hours of precipitation and only 4-5 of it managed to be some sort of wintry weather. Don't get me wrong, I'm not mad I don't have to deal with power outages and cutting up fallen trees but at the same time I don't track sunny days either, I like to see the interesting and extremes and this missed by a pretty narrow margin on that metric. So what's next? lol

00z NAM shows me above freezing until 11pm - 12am now. Can keeps getting kicked if that's correct.

<Samuel Jackson Impersonation> Wait I'm still plain raining and you mutha f#$@ckers are flipping to sleet... What the f$#k!?!? </Samuel Jackson Impersonation>