RitualOfTheTrout

Euro has an interesting setup for the possible storm next week, but a couple key differences with the GFS which is further SE / faster. Euro digs the energy coming in off the PAC into a closed low in the SW partially at least due to the ridge out west not getting knocked down allowing the storm to slow down and consolidate the energy allowing for an almost double barrel type low look getting good snow into our area. GFS on the other hand has the ridge getting knocked down with that piece in Canada allowing the energy to move east and kick the storm out before it can get it's act together. CMC seems a bit slower bringing that PAC energy on shore but also starts to dig it a bit and is much more Euro like. That will be what I keep an eye on as we get closer to this potential. It's been hard to slow the PAC down lately, so my gut says the GFS may be closer to right here, but it's so far out right now some of those variables may not even be there as we close in or something else could manifest to counteract.

Maybe some heavy snow / squalls this afternoon and evening. Not much else going on unless you like to track flood watches Saturday into Sunday. In the wake of the cold front, expected an uptick in snow shower/snow band activity between 4pm to 7pm with a passing shortwave. Hi-Res models depict reflectivity returns of 20DBZ to 30DBZ with snow bands which could create hazardous travel and visibility concerns. The snow squall parameter is also maximized between 20Z Thurs to 00Z Friday over western PA due to steep lapse rates and instability values between 40J/kg to 75J/kg. Short-fused Special Weather Statements (SPS) or Snow Squall Warnings may be needed this evening. Probability of 1"/hr snowfall rates are low (less than 10%) but 0.3"/hr to 0.5"/hr could be embedded within bands.

Sure, Ill roll the dice on a negative tilt full lat trough.

I think he was just showing that map as a "hey, its far enough out, could end up further SE". I agree though, I wouldn't be sleeping easy that close the the southern edge. GFS does show a decent front end WAA snow, but did nudge back NW for the 15th. I think if that storm was a day or two later it would be a hit. PV is to far west and blocking is just getting established so it is able to cut, roll forward a day or so and it probably gets steered on a better path. CMC on the other hand little WAA snow, but maybe a decent change over Sunday. Storm on the 20th may be the opposite, blocking might be to strong by then and it gets shoved SE. To far out for any absolutes, but based on the setup modeled today those are my two fail scenarios. As we know in 6 hours there will be a new set of variables to dissect.

Where have we seen this before this season lol. While Im not expecting much, I wouldn't complain if we got a few hours of light snow either. Honestly with the rain coming tomorrow Im kinda glad this is a whiff. In some weird way I get anxiety waiting for the snow to get melted. Anyways... Definitely an element of bad luck so far.

I guess it depends how far South lol. Seems unlikely anything more than half inch or so for the city, but yeah further SE could get into the 1-2 inch range. Going to take a relatively large change given it's only 24 hours away for anyone NW of the city to see much I think. Either way whatever falls is just a "stats padder" as the next system Wednesday looks to be mostly rain right now.

Getting some light snow / flurries this morning. Wasn't expecting that. 12z 3k NAM bumped the precip shield a hair north for tomorrow. Not much, but maybe we could eek 1-2 out of it if it bleeds north up to game time. Im not expecting much of anything though.

Who knows, maybe we get a surprise and the 700mb frontgen band goes 200 miles further north and gets us Tuesday lol I wouldn't write anything off yet, but we need some changes for the next two after. Not out of the question one or both ends less amped and further south. This season thats been the trend. If it happens and its enough to make a difference here remains to be seen.

Pretty much a non event imby. All plain rain, no thunder.

Oh I agree 100%. I was using it to show the week after next might actually be more favorable if the pattern evolves as depicted. Realistically I think even expecting half that much is a stretch.

I guess the good part is it looks like after next week is when the better pattern takes hold so if it doesn't work out there's still opportunities to be had. 18z GFS had two big storms actually hit us and a couple little ones pushing 30+ inches.

Not a fan of the way things seem to be heading, weaker wave early next week that may whiff to the south then the follow-up is stronger and to far NW vs previously the first wave was a stronger and held less energy back for the second. Obviously nothing is carved in stone, but not a great look either atm.

Definitely heard some thunder around 2:45-ish last night. Overall, the the SW corner of the state the ice was not a big deal as we expected. Probably pretty dicey earlier in the night, but zero issues driving in at 4:30am. As I hear people talking filtering into the office I keep hearing "What happened to the big ice storm?" lol Where do people hear this stuff? Even the evening news was pretty subdued in terms of impacts. Looks like a repeat Saturday evening? Beyond that, next week we won't know how the boundary sets up until much closer. Update NY / NE looks to get hammered with multiple systems which may not bode well for us being on the right side of things.

Haha, Awesome. WeatherStar 4000+ Emulator?

Maybe something to keep an eye on for more of an impact, especially if we stay below freezing all day: Dry weather and cloudy skies continue through the rest of this afternoon. Light northeast winds and dense cloud cover are resulting in temperatures trending several degrees below what was originally progged in model guidance. Will need to keep an eye on this as it could impact the extent of ice accumulation late this evening and overnight as low pressure approaches and rain overspreads the area from the south and west.

Storm middle of next week looks promising at this range. Actually could use a more northern track but these next two look more wet than frozen for sure.

It only takes a light glaze for big problems, but I agree it should be pretty short lived.

Pretty crazy agreement. I would add some caution as several the individual ens members show warm nose scenarios too for the various storms. Not trying to be a downer, but I would expect some snow to mix to rain setups while areas not to far north or east get all or mostly snow. Just mentally prepare for that. If the setup is anywhere near to correct though I feel good we finally get a 5+ storm at least and maybe more if we can get an all or mostly all snow event.

I find a lover of all things winter weather, the occasional warm day is much more enjoyable especially when a change back to snow threats is on the horizon. It was nice to get outside and take a walk. Now, I'll be good if I don't see anymore days like that until the end of March.

So far so good on the pattern progression into the second week of Feb. If it holds there should be some trackable threats in a few days. -AO, -NAO, -EPO, and maybe even the PV splitting with a piece getting stuck over hudson bay. If its all correct I could see another 4 week plus window. Adjust for seasonal wavelengths shortening and more warmth south adding fuel to storm development and I like our chances to go out with a bang.

I've been keeping an eye on the MJO forecasts, and its definitely been verifying at a little higher amplitude than what was forecast a few days prior. Now it looks to (albeit still relatively quickly and weakly) traverse through phases 5-6-7, its not a surprise that the upcoming "warm" period looks a little more hostile in terms of the SER and storm tracks being a bit further North. Still not a no hope setup for snow, but given we won't be building any kind of snow pack, I'll certainly have less interest in little 1-2 inch possibilities. I still think mix events will be more likely than all snow and temperatures will be much more variable, but not straying super far from normal in any given day. Hopefully we get one more reload for the last 2 weeks of Feb into March, that still seems likely but as we know nothing is a guarantee in this hobby.

Light snow falling, pretty sure a trace was observed yesterday, so the streak continues!

The pattern is relaxing, I'd expect temperatures to fluctuate but not deviate to far from normal one way or the other after this weekend. Only little shots at snow over the next 7, less than inch type deals. The next bigger storm threat window looking like its associated with that cutoff low in the SW US over California and when it ejects out and how, ie does it come out all in one piece, or multiple little ones. GFS and Euro at 00z show it starting to move next week and possibly affect our area by next weekend (Feb 1 - 2) but of course this is all subject to change every 6 hours. The NAO and AO are positive so there isn't any blocking to hold cold air in place so its going to need to be well timed with a northern stream vort re-enforcing the cold or a decent high funneling cold in. This setup is more likely to result in a mixed precipitation type event (slop storm as we call them) as there is a pretty narrow path to all snow given all the things that would need to go right. After the last couple weeks of really maximizing a pretty dry pattern I wouldn't mind a mixed event if its more frozen than wet but we also don't have to stress over a couple tenths of qpf being the max upside.

Blowing through here now, definitely more impressive than radar indicated. Less than a quarter inch, but went out during the height of it for a brisk but short walk. Love it!

Deep Winter out there.. It's been a great January. Mixed feeling about the pattern finally relaxing, on one hand wouldn't mind if this kept up, but also wouldn't mind seeing if we can get something more favorable for a bigger storm even if its more variable and less favorable for snow retention.