RitualOfTheTrout

It's going to be close by the looks of it. Some WAA right now, but trade off is it's snowing lightly too.

NWS mentioned flurries and snow showers possible as weak shortwaves embedded in the flow periodically move through. Maybe that's what we are seeing?

I was outside for a bit, sure looks like some new light snow is falling.

Maybe won't technically count but good enough for that festive feel in my book. Your probably right about the wind, had it been a calm snow I bet we would have had it.

Nice. No question this air mass is legit. I'm not a big cold chaser perse but if we are within a record I'm all for breaking it.

Yeah, in the history books this day probably won’t look all that interesting. with Ohio having decent snow cover and the inch or so we got plus lack of lake influence for moderation I see no reason we can’t make a run for record low high tomorrow.

No doubt there will be isolated temporary blizzard conditions, just not sustained to meet criteria.

That's pretty impressive, it was 38 at 4:45, 30 degree drop in 3 hours.

Still snowing pretty steadily. Thankfully we got some heavier embedded bands to build after the front went through. No idea how much with the blowing but ground is covered

Radar not looking overly impressive to my eye, returns look to be weakening in Ohio. Front looks to be right on the border so we'll see if it fills in as it gets closer.

Not sure on the -36, NWS seems to think those types of numbers will be in the ridges. Last time for -20 -25 per NWS discussion was 2019. The last time Pittsburgh observed wind chills in the -20F range was January 30-31 2019.

Hopefully, would be nice if some of the liquid models show is actually wet snow. I think the slower the low is to deepen the further east it makes it before cutting North so any trend in that should help us. Prior when it was a blizzard for Chicago the further west was better due to it already undergoing intense deepening.

I kept waiting to see a phase, it was close a few times but just didn't have a deep enough trough to scoop it up. No doubt that would have been an even more prolific synoptic snow maker.

Maybe in the very higher elevations, but not really for us in the low lands. That air is bone dry continental Arctic air. The lakes add a source of moisture when we get NW go flow but also moderate the air mass, so colder temperatures than one might expect are possible despite the lack of snow cover.

Well... This should be fun to watch when the front rios through either way... Confidence is high that a drastic change in weather conditions will occur as a strong cold front races through the Ohio River Valley before dawn Friday. With the passage of the cold front expect the following: 1. Wind gusts will increase to 30-35 mph early Friday morning, 40-50 mph during the afternoon. Sustain winds of 20-25mph are likely. With steep low level lapse rates due to strong cold advection, 850mb winds (45-50kts) will have no trouble mixing to the surface. 2. Temperatures will drop 20 degrees in a short time frame (within 3-4 hours), creating a flash freeze risk. Note: With the combination of high wind gusts and single digit temperatures, wind chill values should also fall below zero. With this forecast package, a Wind Chill Watch has been issued across the entire area. A few time segments have been added for the onset time of the Arctic air and an increase in gusts. The Watch will likely be upgraded to Advisory/Warning in the next 12 to 24 hours. Right now, there is high confidence that the ridges will reach the threshold for a Warning. Elsewhere, the lowest wind chill value is -20F near I-80. 3. A sudden change in precipitation type will occur along the frontal boundary, rain changing to snow. With strong frontogenesis along the cold front, there is a chance of an intense snow band that would advance west to east during the Friday morning commute. The latest run of the NMB shows shallow instability (35-50J/kg) in some regions. Simulated hi-res radar depicts 25-40DBZ reflectivity along the frontal boundary. If this is all snow, it will heavily impact the region. Snow showers will prevail across the region the rest of Friday afternoon within the cold air mass. However, the intensity will wane in the absence of strong ascent. With snow ratios well above the climatological average (could be as high as 20:1), an additional 2+ inches is not out of the question through late Friday night.

I wonder what is causing that hole, it's been there on most models for awhile. Maybe just an illusion with Ohio getting more being closer to the low and the ridges getting some upslope help. Hopefully GFS offers Euro a hit from the pipe and we get a last minute improvement. Maybe we double totals and see 2 inches.

I'm still holding out hope we can squeeze out an inch or so. I'll be highly irritated if I only come out of this with bare ground, wind shredded outdoor Christmas decorations and a $40 increase in my heating bill for the weekend only for the next precipitation after the core of the cold moves out to be rain. Sucks the storm sets up in a manner where the flow is SW, can't even bank in snow bands to help. That being said, can you imagine what Buffalo is about to get? Feet upon feet of snow with 70mph winds. The drifts will be insane. That's honestly getting borderline scarry with the deep cold / paralyzing snow / wind. Buffalo AFD calling a once in a generation storm.

I agree, other than a quick cursory check its not worth over analyzing anything until tomorrow afternoon / evening.

I usually just look at total qpf after sounding supports snow. When we get closer in time sometimes bufkit / Cobb data etc. Skew-ts are a great visual of the column and lift in the dgz. All the snow algorithms have their issues and work best under a certain situations. Throw in temporal resolution issues in change over situations (think a model sounding supports snow at hour 3 and so assumes everything that falls between hour 3 and 6 is snow when in reality a warm nose punches through at hour 4) and you have a recipe for disappointment. Don't get me wrong, I love to look at those maps when they show a big hit and if I'm in a hurry they are a good summary of what the model shows but especially in marginal temperatures and change over situations need a few grains of salt.

I'd probably just use 10:1 maps from a 24 hour period 12z Friday - 12z Saturday and see what that looks like. That's our most likely period to see accumulating snow I'd say.

I was going to say if those Euro forecast gusts are accurate, easily 45-55mph, it doesn't really matter if you get 4 inches or 1 inch, the snow will be blown around so much any un-sheltered area will be lucky to have a coating. Still hopefully enough to give the landscape that picturesque look. My bar is low, total fail is bare brown ground, even a light cover will do. Hopefully the wind blows all the snow off my roof into the front yard. Snow totals are going to come down to short range models really but if I had to guess its a pretty low ceiling now, 3 tops.

Oh boy that should be fun lol. Honestly though if you aren't coming through until later in the day Friday outside of the mountains hopefully the roads in the low lands will be treated and reasonable to drive on.

Are you back in PA for the Holiday with this one? I'll take that little blob of 3 right over my house and call it a day.

I'm not sure, but the Euro and NAM want nothing to do with those bigger totals the GFS is showing. Maybe its just pessimism but I'd hedge towards lower amounts like 1-3 / 2-4 until we get closer especially since the overall evolution is still changing pretty dramatically. I'm fairly certain though that this won't trend far enough east to keep us out of the warm sector but it may be enough to ruin any shot at decent back end snow. Part of the east trend is the storm is taking longer to organize and is weaker, maybe that helps blunt some of the WAA ahead of it and we can cool faster. I honestly don't know what solution to root for at this point lol

It's really paltry all around, storm doesn't look nearly as intense. Wouldn't that be something if we go full circle back to this just being a glorified frontal passage for everyone? Personally I'd prefer the bomb dynamic option just for something interesting to track even if our area misses most of the snow.