RitualOfTheTrout

Those ENS snow maps at that range are pretty useless imho. Swing pretty wildly, prone to being weighted towards a few really bad or really big hits etc. Years past these maps did show more, but it's not like they ever verified then either. They did correct some bad bias'es that made them lean more snowy, so that's at least part of it. Only thing you can really glean is that at least as of that run, the pattern *may* be conducive for above average snow for the month of January. If its bad I wouldn't lose sleep over it, and if it looked great I wouldn't be teeing up the "It's Happening" Gif either...

Pattern changes are chaotic, less certainty on guidance, but also usually rushed. No guarantees of course, but I'm still optimistic we will have better luck in early Jan.

Rumor has it its been awhile, no need for details, if it snows we will know you took care of business.

Who forgot to check the locks on the asylums back door? Last one out had to much egg nog and a few patients got loose.

Since Im here Ill take a bit of my own advice, I agree with you, to soon to "cancel" anything. Probably not too soon to debate if the pattern change we thought was coming in early Jan might not be what we thought and it may take to the second half but would that really be that far off from most expectations of a more back loaded winter? Probably not, but those that ride the emotional pendulum with every op run will likely remain insufferable.

Try to find a no kill shelter to drop them off at, but if you can't in this case I wouldn't worry to much about it. Its one thing to pop into another regions thread and try to contribute, but a whole other bag of worms to whine, complain and troll.

Merry Christmas everyone. Here's to some fun tracking and a big hit in the new year.

Yeah, I recall the discussion previously on those. They make an interesting data point, but if they are "bad" it certainly skews the warming trend. I guess you could run those leaving out anything prior to a certain year.

Taking a peak at some op runs, starting to see some possibilities now that the pattern change is coming into focus.

Surprised to see 5 out of 11 of those are pre 1900. Due to poor equipment / record keeping possibly?

I think we are to far out yet to get a handle on that and this isn't a sustained bitter cold pattern, those often aren't great for storms anyways. You're point is valid though, no guarantee we get into a sustained 2 week pattern that is good, it could be in and out in 5-7 days. I'll reserve judgement on that until we get closer, really no shot at anything for at least another 7 days. Get through that and see how the extended looks then. I don't put much time into looking at weeklies etc, but they have been decent for January into Feb but they can swing wildly based on how the run they are initiated from ended sometimes so take with a grain of salt.

Why are we looking at op runs past day 5 and swinging like an emotional pendulum?

Yeah, last year did, but to some degree those changes were in contrast to the background Enso state, this year at least the placement of features generally agrees with what you’d expect. Not saying great times ahead is a guarantee but outside of one GFS Op run everything still looks on track. If it sticks and other ENS start looking similar maybe we have Lucy pulling the football but until then I wouldn’t put much stock in it.

The better pattern look is holding in time, next chance for snow sometime after the 28th. I won't say it's a lock yet, but it would be a pretty big fail at this juncture if it falls apart. Hopefully it has some staying power, it would be nice to get locked into a favorable pattern for the first 2-3 weeks of January. My initial take the ridge axis is maybe a bit to far east which would favor weaker storms to be to far east for us and bomb off the coast, but that could be offset if strong short wave deepens / phases early on. Way to early to hone in on any of that though, but if I had to nitpick...

Same, about .5. Looks like most of the steadier bands missed me overnight. Still got enough to head out last evening and check out some Christmas lights with the family in the snow, so all in all it was a win. I did think we would do a bit better based on the setup. Hopefully by this time next week a better looking pattern is in the short to medium range with maybe something to track. That would be a great Christmas present!

About a quarter inch here so far, next batch of steadier snow about to move in. HRRR showing a band later tonight with a Huron connection, could give somebody a surprise if that comes to fruition.

If sun angle is a concern on December 19th.... I guess to add, I think retention (again relative, do you mean 1 day, 1 week?) is reasonable mid Dec - end of Jan assuming you have a pattern that supports cold and a get a couple inches on the ground, otherwise no not reasonable. This situation, not reasonable, we are basically on an island of winter today and tomorrow in a sea of blah. Take what you can get, and try to have some fun in the misery right?

To me any place other than my backyard is stupid, so if that means yours instead of mine then I'll be by with an industrial blow torch to melt the snow you stole from me. I'm joking by the way.... I think.

This is what I was getting at when I said the pattern didn't look great but it wasn't a complete shutout look. Should have 2 days of cold and snow in the air, and hopefully score an inch or so. As for being negative, I guess it's relative to ones expectations. I'll be happy just to see snow falling, hopefully get enough to cover the ground and take the kids around to look at lights with a wintry backdrop. If that's only a half inch so be it.

Seeing snow now as well. Can't hurt if its a bit sooner than expected. Not expecting much until later this afternoon though.

Yeah, this. Its all a nowcast situation, see if squalls setup and if so if your yard gets hit.

In my opinion the setup looks good for how we maximize a cold window in an otherwise unfavorable pattern. A shortwave dropping in behind the main storm after we already have a favorable NW flow off warm lakes is typically a way we can score a small event. If we maximize the setup potential squalls and briefly heavy snow not out of the question. Its a nowcast thing, but beats days of 40s and 50s right?

Still looks pretty changeable on the various ENS means, not saying it means snow but wall to wall torch no guarantee either heading towards next weekend. On an unrelated note, saw a stat 2023 is vying for second least snowy year on record at 12 inches.

We've always nickle and dime'ed our way to the averages-ish, with a bigger storm thrown in there every couple years (look at the frequency of 5+ 8+ 12+ storms in the records) so I agree not having those 1-3 / 2-4 clippers and NW flow LES setups has really made winters lately seems worse than they are from a bigger storm perspective. Beginning of December the mid to late month period looked much better than at least what it appears reality will bare. Still not a total shutout look, but also not out of the question we are way below average by Jan. If the good looks keep getting pushed back we will quickly find ourselves in a hope for one big storm winter again. Still not out of the question we have a second half turn around, but the clock is ticking.

At least there are plenty of darts being thrown, gotta think if that continues one will work out.