RitualOfTheTrout

Agree. Usually a compromise / blend of guidance works best. Just depends if we are like 60/ 40 GFS camp or Euro. If its Euro we won't be as happy. That said watch Euro come in with some phased bomb now.

If you want snow you generally don't want severe cold anyways. Not much clarity overnight, same possibilities still on the table from medium impact snowfall to nothing. All the ops and ens suites seem to be ocilating within that goal post still.

It is odd they switched places, hopefully not a case of GFS being late to catch on. Thanks for the analysis, haven't looked at the overall pattern vs trends. Will be good to watch that BC LP for early hints on 00z runs.

Its certainly not like it used to be, if it was the Euro vs everything else you could still weight it 70 / 30 Euro. GFS is way improved now, so at least a reason to be optimistic. The other good thing, if the GFS is more right, we have room for an earlier phase / more amped solution.

That's about the only certainty you can get from 12z. Pretty much all solutions from medium impact snowfall to nothing. Glad I don't have to bet on this cause I don't know which way I'd go. I wouldn't say dire straights. That might not be a super warm look, and signs the blocking wants to reload. I get your point though, by then we are entering the last 3rd of winter needing some big wins to hit climo.

Pretty chaotic with all the shortwaves in play, honestly pretty low ROI tracking right now, at least until the big midwest low does it's thing. Just glancing at the different runs at 500 there are some pretty big run to run changes. It is a weather discussion board though, so if your here, what else are you going to do right?

I agree, I think we are all but assured to have suppressive flow for the MLK threat. I was really hoping we didn't go from two massive midwest blizzards to a sheared out mess, so hopefully the second option comes to fruition and we get some phasing. It would be nice to get a couple inches on the ground to go with the cold.

Flow behind the big cutter not a trajectory to get us LES, more west or south west. Buffalo NWS talking maybe big LES event, so we can watch it snow on TV during the Steelers game at least.

I'm wondering if after this next cutter we get some better snow action on the back-end with some true arctic air coming in over very warm lake waters if we can get a favorable trajectory and a little embedded shortwave to help mix things up. Storm after is till on the Euro, and GFS seems to be at least showing the possibility of something in the same time frame too.

Yeah, and today's system will on the way out too.

You mean -NAO? Pretty beefy ridge over Greenland there. Biggest issue I see is that beast of TPV lobe just under Hudson bay. That is going to make it hard for anything to amplify without get shredded. Lift that north or further east and you have some room for something to dig and amplify then run into that and get pushed east before it can cut west of us.

Which storm are you talking about and why are you saying that? Guessing the Tuesday storm after the Friday / Saturday deal? Still too early to say one way or the other with several features that won't be resolved for awhile. Starting to think for the next one best we can hope for is similar to what we got today. Quick front end thump, although there isn't a high in as favorable of spot either, it's sliding off the coast on approach and the low center may be closer to us, which would in theory boost WAA. Getting to short of lead time for a big shift SE at this point, unless the idea of jumping to the coast comes back.

Nah, Tidbits had 6z / 18z Euro free, albeit delayed out to 90. Your'e good.

That's why I'm not ready to toss that one out as a rainy cutter, it has a better shot of at least being a redeveloper, and we should have a little better cold to work with ahead of it.

Same, I'm really surprised to see it switch back to snow, that almost never happens once we go to rain.

I'm not ready to toss out the storm this weekend, still has a shot to be weaker / further SE, maybe front end to slop type setup. Next storm after is probably better shot as we start to get some ridging in the west and cold air can come east along with the storm track. Good to see the MJO is flying through the bad phases. Should keep any negative effect minimal and set us up for a reload in Feb. Seems like we have some dice rolls, whether we hit on any who knows. Still better than last year at least having hope and interesting stuff to track. Now to go put some bricks in my garbage cans before the wind storm.

Nice. Just some flurries here. Great to see the snow, even if only around for a short time. Hopefully after this Tuesday midwest rain storm we get some clarity on next weekend. Im still concerned that tropical forcing in the bad phases of the MJO are going to lead to to much -PNA even though its counter to what youd expect in a Nino. We can benefit on the downstream effects of some ridging off the coast for a more Western track, but might be to much of that.

I think we did pretty good for what this storm ended up being. Can't complain about steady moderate to heavy snow for an hour or two. Given its going to get washed out Tuesday it only being a couple inches makes that more palatable anyways. Lol Any feel free to choose any adjective you can make fit.

Glad to hear it. Lets try to keep this thread civil and mainly obs and discussion. Use PMs or the banter thread for the other stuff. Or as mentioned by others, the ignore feature. Save explitives for things like I just got a f***k ton of snow. We are a small group so in slow times bantering in this thread isn't a big deal, but for me coming in on the eve of a storm and seeing all the bickering / fighting was really unnecessary.

Measures about an inch a three quarters. Its heavy and wet, probably 2 if I had done the snowboard thing. Looks like another heavier burst back building on radar, not sure if it will hit the city or not.

Its nice for sure. Bonus points for daytime weekend timing too.

You are, but so are the rest of us in here. Light to borderline moderate snow right now. Temp down from 34 earlier to 32. Light coating on the grass and shaded pavement currently.

Wow.. what a mess this thread turned into... Cleanup on aisle 5. GFS and CMC look decent, Allegheny is right on the dividing line of the higher totals and warm air might be an issue at least at first. Probably not enough confidence for NWS to up to an advisory. Going to be a radar nowcast thing I think. I dont get all the frustration, if theres no advisory and you get 5 inches do you enjoy it less? If we are in a warning and get 3 does the warning make you feel better?

I haven't had time to dig deep into latest runs. How do thermals look? They might be concerned mixing reduces totals especially if Allegheny doesn't get the heavier rates.

Miller B type storm on the GFS and CMC too right now for next weekend. Should be an interesting week for tracking if that trend to pop a secondary further SE continues. Probably not completely cooked on a front thump on Tuesday either.