RitualOfTheTrout

Most of sliding just to south of me, still had a enough to get a coating. Looks like some pretty good returns in western Allegheny.

Coating on the grass here with light to moderate wind driven snow.

Yeah, it seems like lately our region is divided on bigger storms. That Jan 94 storm track was perfect. Really an unusual distribution of snow.

Yeah, I was going to say December 2020 was definitely double digits. I got stuck at work with an issue that day and drove home after 11pm so that one sticks out but must be skewed by the "single daily" total. That makes it more like 4 years which I'd say is more inline with our statistical odds of that type of event. It doesn't do anything to satisfy the big storm itch though.

I enjoy the little snows, especially if it stays cold with snow on snow. That being said we are about at the end of realistically keeping snow on the ground so by early March Im much more interested in a bigger storm. Jeff V had a stat today our largest daily snowfall is 2.6 inches (midnight - midnight) and that was last weekend.

Had one blow through here, lasted almost 10 minutes. Snow was legit heavy. Looks like another round moving in now.

What could go wrong? Rather see it than not. Would be a great end to winter if we can manage a warning criteria event in the next couple weeks.

It was a great little event, I agree to bad the first batch got washed out, but better to have snowed and melted than to have never snowed at all. Made the best of yesterday with an impromptu sled and snowman session with the boy. Daughter just got her permit so took her driving tonight to get some bad weather driving experience (some donuts in an empty parking lot too ) then finished it off with dog walk pulling the boy in the sled in heavy snow. Sometimes I think cold and snowy weather gets me more motivated to be outside than warm weather lol

Looks to be filling in nicely. Id say another inch is doable based on that.

Radar indicated change over should be going through Allegheny now. Actually a couple wet flakes mixing here too now.

I agree, only to add that has been a problem to some extent (fast Pac flow) for more than just this season.

Right now its really the only model showing it, but its an easier path (All Southern Stream) to something vs what we needed with the big phase. If it can amplify nothing to really suppress it.

Anytime you are depending on the PV let alone interactions with individual lobes rotating around its absolutely tenuous. To be honest aside from maybe a run of the cmc this was never going to be a huge storm for us anyways.

Yep, CMC and Euro both a step back from what we need, sloppy phase. Euro compensates a little with a little stronger southern shortwave. Really need that clean early phase. Could still move back to that idea.

Probably a good sign for the Euro then. Should be rolling in shortly.

Impromptu sled trip to my parents in southern armstrong. Still ripping snow here 3+, not sure about back home. Great morning!

Moderate here again too. Big flakes exploding on contact lol. Some rimming on the flake structure is noted now so mixing is probably about to start.

Looks like 00z Euro and CMC did what jwilison was saying is needed with the faster / cleaner phase. Id take either of those. Im not sure how much better that could get, but like I said yesterday that interaction isn't going to be resolved well yet, and a relatively minor change will have a big effect on us since we need the perfect phase timing to pull it west.

Nope, just enjoying. Can post about it once the deluge starts. Looks like at least an inch.

Sometimes you just gotta laugh...

I think a best case scenario is probably like 4-6 if we somehow manage that unlikely earlier phase scenario. TPV lobes are mercurial poorly modeled variables wherin small changes can have a pretty large impact on storm development and relying on models to have that accurate at this range is setting yourself up for disappointment. Fingers crossed we pull out a surprise.

Hard to know for sure what is from tomorrow pre change over and sunday back to snow, but I think I can infer a couple are a little further west maybe.

Theres to many maps and models to keep track of so no worries. I was hoping I was wrong. I think its possible this *could* come together a little faster and further west which would bring more moisture our way but if I had to bet Id say it goes the other way. Ill be curious to see if any of the eps individuals show that scenario, or if the op is about the best case.

But even it being the most amped is like 2-4 inches (based on .3qpf) or am I missing something? Its still pretty far east with the low.

Honestly our best bet was the storm tomorrow. Once the PV started getting modeled further west which was needed to supress the flow a bit and keep it from going to far NW we were cooked. Next week always looked like a coastal. Baring some insane perfect timed phase with a piece of the PV the best we can probably hope for is to grab a 4-6 inch type deal off the NW side and even that might be a stretch.