RitualOfTheTrout

Time it with a big snow storm and Ill take it, otherwise yeah, save it til December. It also looks to be pretty short lived, warmth probably starts rebuilding a few days after. If it falls through I don't think many will be upset.

I mean if you are expecting consecutive days of highs in the 20s and sustained snowpack yeah, not happening. I think the point is after the warm-up there is a window for a storm to coincide with the colder than average temperatures. All you need is it to be just cold enough and get a dynamic storm with heavy snow and it won't matter if the ground is warm, it was 70 the day before, or the sun angle. Is it likely? No. Is it my preferred type of Winter weather? No. However, any forecaster worth an ounce of salt would be remiss to at least not discuss the fact Winter may have one more trick up its sleeve before Spring really sets in.

Yeah. Im in that boat, Ill take nickel and dimers all winter, but now I want heavy snow or Ill pass. I mean I guess if we got 2 inches in one hour I could live with that. Lol

Ill take it. Best time to torch is early march / april imho. That's basically 60s and 70s. Imagine that map in July...

That's not great. My quick look at things, seems like weaker / further south is would be the lean based on 12z. Still plenty of time for that to change though.

Right now I think we are right where we want to be. Some models North, some to the South. Don't really want any more South on that GFS op run though.

Are you sure about that?

The Monday and Tuesday system continues to be a situation to watch as the current trends with this system points to an impactful late winter wet snow impact or potentially heavy rainfall. A further south track will mean all snow expected and a northerly track will make for more of a rainfall threat. Some solutions within the ensembles suggest a northern track where its too far north and precip is much less. Certainly a system that needs some monitoring.

That would suck for sure, but we have seen that outcome many times before. Verbatim it would "try" to be freezing rain, and it might have some impact given it's falling at night around 28-30 degrees at the surface. Once you get to mid-morning though given it will be early March you are looking at mainly rain. The good thing is things have trended South most of the time this season. Several GEFS members are South and all snow. This several days out, so it may just disappear for all we know.

I do think we probably have another 10 days here give or take before it really warms up. Euro still wants one more big cold shot before we warm up too. Should be plenty of time to hit average or above average snow for the season. After mid-March who knows, it may get cold again relatively speaking, but obviously increasingly harder to snow even if it does.

Ah ok, yeah, I think I have browsed there before, it's been a few years.

At the risk of spending even more time on message boards talking about weather, Ill ask, what is this other site?

Yeah, we usually score on the front end of the miller b before it jumps. I'll always roll the dice with a big miller a that runs inland just east of the mountains even though as you said waa is fairly easy and safe for a widespread hit.

Getting some decent snow bands here on and off. Picked up a quick quarter inch.

Wish it was here! lol