RitualOfTheTrout

If models were a buffet... I'd take a side of GFS for this weekend, scoop of the UKMET for midweek, and for my main course I'll take the Euro for next weekend. Once the desert cart comes around for late feb / early march, I'll see what I want off of that.

With the winds it and fluffy nature of the snow, it's going to be blowing and drifting around too. I'll be curious to see if we get any squalls later Friday night.

If you loop through the runs, it looks like the GFS is progressively getting weaker and weaker for the Sunday thing. Couple that with it not showing on any other guidance and I think we know how this will go.

Clipper still looking solid for Friday. 1-3 inches if I had to guess now. Those wanting a warmup, looks like after this arctic hit this weekend things will moderate. Looks a bit more active too, but rain and storms cutting west will be back on the table.

Kidding.. sorta. Cold would be more fun if we had a couple light events. Had the kids do water balloons with food coloring and we set them out to freeze and then peel the balloons off to make abstract ice art. Running out of interesting things to do. Need another storm before we moderate next week.

Right now the Friday clipper has the best shot at a region wide impact. Crazy by then it will have been almost two weeks since our big storm and its been mainly dry since. The lakes freezing over has limited any benefit of the NW flow outside of a few dustings. Not high on the mid week thing, looks like more of an I70 south thing. Ill be curious to see how things look after next weekend. Some hints we might finally warm up closer to average at least temporarily.

I think we are well on the way to breaking the record again tonight. Already -2 here, with some -10s showing up on weather underground stations.

That model has been doing well.

While we wait for the next threat, this is a pretty good read on what to expect for February: Also, never heard of this process before in the NWS discussion. I was curious why we were seeing light snow this morning. KEY MESSAGE 2... Low chances of flurries will continue through the next few days, likely maximizing each afternoon. This is because of incredibly efficient Burgeron-Fendisen processes in mixed phase clouds, making it very easy for any cloud to produce ice crystals. Each afternoon, this will be slightly enhanced by diurnal heating and destabilization, and the fact that the near-surface layer will peak into the DGZ with warming.

Yeah, we are toast on this one I'd say, barring some crazy fail of all guidance. Honestly, it's a terrible waste of potential for most of the east. Outside of some light clipper type systems, I think we need to get past the brutal cold this weekend and see if anything can spin up as it relaxes a little bit.

I think we want that whole progression to happen further north, snow is almost at the pa line. I think its to much to ask for the coastal to be far enough inland to give us anything. All of this of course assumes the GFS doesn't cave to everything else anyways.

Brief burst of heavy snow. Picked up another quick coating in about 5 minutes.

Light to moderate snow, 9 degrees and wind is whipping up. Pure deep winter out there right now!

Couldn't have asked for a better day after the storm yesterday. Deep cold and on and off mood flakes / fresh coatings. Looks like another round of light snow today, probably a coating to an inch type deal. Weekend threat isn't dead, but odds are low for any impact here. NWS take on the situation: In one scenario, the upper low occludes earlier (Friday into Saturday), forcing surface cyclogenesis tighter to the coast. In this scenario, there may be ascent in the northwest quadrant of the low and the potential for frontogenetical banding (highest probability in western/central PA and northern WV). Using a quick probability of 0.15" QPF (approx 3" of snow at 20:1), this would produce ~60% chance of at least advisory snows. Though this scenario is around 25% likely overall. In the other scenario, the trough either does not produce a closed low or produces a closed low too late and off the Atlantic coast. This would produce cyclogenesis too far east, only resulting in a ~10% chance of advisory snows. This scenario is 75% likely overall.

I feel like this one probably has a limit on how far NW it can come. The pieces that set it off are fairly close in time already, so not a lot of time for big adjustments. That being said, still something to track for now. NWS makes mention in the discussion too: KEY MESSAGE 3... Confidence remains high that cold temperatures will persist into early February, as the large-scale pattern continues to favor a strong ridge along the West Coast and a corresponding trough over the East Coast, allowing cold Canadian air to be driven southward. As a result, daytime temperatures are expected to remain below freezing throughout this period, generally ranging from the low to upper-teens. With little relief from the cold, frozen pipes will pose the primary infrastructure concern across the region. River ice is likely to continue forming area- wide, with increasing thickness over the coming weeks and likely impact river gauge readings. Multiple models suggest a Nor`easter may develop along the Atlantic Coast late this weekend, warranting close monitoring for potential snow impacts over the next several days.