mob1
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Everything posted by mob1
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How much did they have before this event? By the end of this hour they should be at around 3 inches for the event.
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LGA added 1.4" in the last hour.
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HRRR shows the lull quite well but has heavy rain redeveloping over the area this afternoon. Give the city a few more inches of rain. We'll see if it actually happens.
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JFK already surpassed 4 inches with a heavy band moving in. We might get a nice break here soon and then we'll see if more rain develops.
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Drove from Staten Island to Midwood this morning through insane rainfall rates. That was hairy.
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I'm in Brooklyn and it's absolutely pouring now. Rain has a tropical feel to it.
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Let's compare that to what the 18Z HRRR had at this point.
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Some areas south of Tom's River are closing in on 2 inches but models had almost nothing for them to this point. It doesn't necessarily mean anything for the main show later tonight into tomorrow, but it shows how hard these mesoscale features are to pin down.
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What did it look at at 0Z? Never mind, Pivotal has a trend option.
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Yes, let's. My favorite flooding event ever, my street was literally a river. None of the cars in these pictures are actually moving, they're all parked.
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More like 7-9". It's confined to a relatively small area though, and looks like a classic winter norlun through with the isobars elongated towards the NW. Those suckers can generate a ton of forcing but are notoriously fickle and hard to pin down. More often than not, the axis of the heaviest precipitation ends up a bit NE of where it was modeled.
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Yep, looks like a more realistic version of the NAM.
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Absolutely pouring here for the past 20 minutes. These last few bands are going to add up quick.
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Just crossed 2 inches for the event. It's been a slow bleed to get there so definitely not concerned about flooding.
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We'll see if Ophelia's remnant low does indeed regenerate a bit to give parts of our region flooding rains. Models have hinted at it on and off, but for now it looks like a long shot.
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These are a bit further east than the bands last night so it might clip a larger portion of the island.
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Over 1.5" now with about the same amount left to go if models are to be believed.
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1.27" here and there seems to be some nice bands that should rotate off the ocean in the next few hours. We'll see what tomorrow brings, but I'll probably end up with around 2 inches or so which is more than enough.
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Now the GFS comes in with this. It's just impossible to get any kind of agreement and/or consistency from models anymore.
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It's fine where it's now, we were discussing the shelf waters as it gets closer to the coast. Either way, should be a fairly steady state from now through landfall (might strengthen a bit in the next few hours but should weaken a bit as it approaches the coast).
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You're coming on a bit strong. Relax, it's just a storm and the reality is that 78-80 degree SST's are borderline at best. Recon recording unflagged SFMR of 70 knots should be enough for an upgrade (though they didn't do it at 5).
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