mob1
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Everything posted by mob1
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JMA looks pretty good as well
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There has been a bit of a trend on all 12Z models today of trailing some energy behind, but enough gets involved that we get a moderate hit. Still plenty of time for improvements. What's weird is that it used to be a very obvious bias of the GFS to eject energy too quickly, and the Euro tended to always bury it in the SW and leave it behind. It seems like lately the opposite has been the case.
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12Z Euro gets the 0.5" line to around Boston and then westward a hair north of the CT/MA border. With ratios that's a solid warnjng event for many.
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That's amazing
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Both can be (and actually is) true. The evolution is definitely a bit south and phasing occurs a hair later, but verbatim it's still a big hit.
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Energy in the SW held back a bit more and confluence to our north is a lot stronger.
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At hour 78, CMC is also holding that energy back a bit compared to 0Z, though we'll see how it progresses from here as it's not a huge shift.
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Are you sure you're looking at 12Z? It's well south.
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You can't hold back that much energy and expect it to work. Luckily, this particular issue (holding back too much energy) is a staple with all of our big storms at this range so not overly concerned for now.
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I'm fine with a slower evolution overall, but holding back that energy SW of the Baja peninsula will mean less phasing and pumping heights out ahead. We'll see how this runs progresses, but that's easily the biggest callout for now.
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The Euro at 06Z looks nice with the low moving north juuuuuust offshore. Would likely be a solid hit if extrapolated past hour 144.
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Big shift north on the GFS
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Moderate snow and 31 degrees. Looking at the radar, I should make it to 2 inches for just this evening.
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Extremely white rain here
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Finally made it to 32, radar also looks much improved in the last 30 minutes. I'm at 2.1" between today and yesterday so far.
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Down to 32.4 degrees with light snow continuing. Sticking to pretty much all surfaces now.
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Loop it, last few frames look better. Now we need to see if it's another headfake or an actual improvement.
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Echos trying to strengthen again on radar. It's been doing it multiple times only to collapse southeastward a bit so let's see if we can build a solid precipitation field this time.
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Solid light snow now in Staten Island and starting to accumulate again on colder surfaces. Would love to see radar echos intensify and expand on the northern side, it has a bit of a hard time doing so at the moment and just keeps pulsating.
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After a brief lull, light snow starting up again as radar continues to fill in.
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...to this. Let's see if it continues to expand to our area.
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In about 30 minutes, radar went from this...
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Same here, though some neighborhoods I passed in Brooklyn this morning were wet/slushy.
