Fun look on the Euro in fantasy range. Has a good PNA spike before it collapses a bit due to another shortwave crashing into the PNW (part of the same PAC flow issues we've been dealing with for a few years) but there's all kinds of potential here (verbatim it all comes together well to our NE).
Not worried, just discussing weather. I have no control over what happens, just have lived here long enough to know how this usually goes.
I'm rooting for us harder than you can imagine, it's normal to be a bit pessimistic given overall trends.
It's the most likely outcome IMO. Snow to sleet and then maybe back to some light snow.
These very sharp cutoffs on snow maps juuuuust south of us rarely (if ever) work out in our favor.
2-4" is what I'm going with now
Likely the January 2016 storm. It's NYC's snowiest storm but leading up to it most models showed it missing them to the south and NAM was the first to move well north.
The entire evolution of the storm is a bit too aggressive and too far north on the NAM, but the sleet line will likely be a lot further north that the what the other models show.