mob1
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Everything posted by mob1
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NAM gets you to 32 for a bit, and if it's right about the primary being that strong and holding on for so long, it can be even warmer. Still snow and sleet with frigid temperatures to start, but when you can't just say it's cold when the entire dynamics change and it's entirely possible that a large chunk of coastal areas get to or above freezing.
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For areas getting sleet on that frame, the issue is below 700 mb.
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I'll add one. No single NYC proper airport or ASOS site (JFK, EWR, LGA, and NYC) will report double digit snowfall totals.
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Sleet at least adds up and makes the snowpack last, we want to avoid rain though (NAM shows a bit at the tail end for southern parts of the city). Just need the NAM 30-40 miles south and I honestly don't care if we flip to sleet a bit earlier than modeled.
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Sleet is all but guaranteed for most of us in the end, what I'm looking at now is heavier precipitation before the switch.
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We'll see when the money frames come out, but so far the NAM seems marginally improved.
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It's always far too cold/snowy in this range for this type of storm. It's a well known bias, and it can be pretty extreme sometimes.
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Plus it's the shallowest of warm layers (something that heavy rates can perhaps overcome). Either way, it's hard to imagine that being ZR.
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Relatively speaking (to what I was responding to). For me personally, 6 inches would be a success and anything more gravy. Less than 6 would hurt a bit
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Surface temps aren't the issue though, it's the warm nose in the mid levels that are screwing us. No amount of cold waters will offset that.
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GFS is always too progressive overall, kills off primaries too quickly, and sucks at thermal profiles that mesoscale models excel at. I'd be cautious with it when it's so different than other models.
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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!
mob1 replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
Sleet has some serious staying power though, it would preserve the snowmaking for a while (though in this case it's crazy cold afterwards so it wouldn't matter). -
The NAM is beautiful. I'd much rather have the thermals trend favorably and then figure out the precipitation distribution and intensity than the other way around.
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Probably a touch warmer than 6Z aloft as sleet moves in just a tiny bit earlier. Still a good run, with 7+ inches (at 10 to 1) accumulated by the time sleet moves in.
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On top of the synoptic impacts, verbatim this would yield a significant upslope event for the northern Green mountains. Still in fantasy range, but definitely fun to look at.
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First part of the storm should feature some good ratios. About -10C on all levels, temps in the DGZ region is ideal (-12 to 18 Celsius is what you want to see) and winds aren't overly strong.
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Still in fantasy range, but it would be nice to finish one storm and immediately start tracking the next one.
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I am not hating the 12Z suite so far, 6-10 inches of snow followed by some sleet.
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Sleet line is fast approaching here, but what a thump!
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The run-to-run changes out west (even in the short) on all models is wild, and really highlights the complexity of the storm. Oddly enough, the surface depictions are a lot more consistent.
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Early changes on the NAM seem positive, let's see what it shows on the surface in a few frames.
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Pretty much. After that it's a timing thing, if the phase out west comes together quickly, heights will quickly rise. Do many variables here, it's simultaneously frustrating and fascinating to track.
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Since what we're looking for out west seems to allude most people, I'll at least mention that confluence is notably better in the east at hour 36 than last run (heights are lower).
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It's just a blend of all models
