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mob1

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Everything posted by mob1

  1. mob1
    I think in general at this range the Euro tends to be far more amplified with most storms than the GFS. In terms of it being a well-known bias, I think maybe only recently as the Euro used to have incredible verification scores back in the day in the mid range. They tinkered with it a little and now it definitely is a bit more overzealous in the 4-7 day range, whereas the GFS is the opposite extreme. Doesn't mean either one is right/wrong this time, but I don't think the notion should be completely discounted.
  2. mob1
    The January 26-27 2015 bust is a good example of that, the Euro showed an extremely tucked solution and like 40 inches of snow and the GFS was far more progressive (and right).
  3. mob1
    Educations come and go, but virtual modeled snow is forever.
  4. mob1
  5. mob1
    Looks like it'll end up decently offshore (though there's still snow from the initial overrunning).
  6. mob1
    Unreal guys
  7. mob1
  8. mob1
  9. mob1
    It's a good deal better
  10. mob1
    GFS has nothing for us.
  11. mob1
    What's NYC at for the season now?
  12. mob1
    I have the same issue so I crop it till it gets to 1.95 mb or less.
  13. mob1
    The park has too be seeing some serious rates now.
  14. mob1
    Really coming down now, hope the sleet line doesn't advance too quickly.
  15. mob1
    All snow here and accumulating rather quickly
  16. mob1
    Also known as "winter in the NYC metro area". Our slam dunk snow events are few and far between (and need to be cherished).
  17. mob1
    Even 3 is likely a pipe dream for us. Even 1 seems like a stretch. I'm expecting something similar to what we had yesterday (maybe half an inch of slop).
  18. mob1
    Approaching 4 inches in SI (have about 300 feet of elevation), definitely more than I expected this afternoon.
  19. mob1
    It's a great development if most falls after sunset
  20. mob1
    Probably just downslope shadowing from the 14,000 foot peaks of the Morris county mountains.
  21. mob1
    The ones on the Connecticut coast are likely too warm for SE areas verbatim. I guess it also depends on the trajectory from there, if the orientation of the front is WSW to ENE it's probably fine for most. Either way, it's a trash product.
  22. mob1
    Of course (I live a few miles from you and actually grew up near Coney Island so know the climate well), it's so frustrating.
  23. mob1
    Every single model has trended towards moving the heaviest precipitation west of us. You're relying on a front to move through and falling temps, and I think you've been doing this long enough to understand that we usually cool slower than forecasted and with lighter precipitation you'll have BL issues even if it's sufficiently cold aloft. If the axis of heaviest precipitation moves back east a bit on models I'll be more confident, but right now I think you're setting yourself up for a major disappointment.
  24. mob1
    By 1.7 miles. The storm is in 48 hours, that shift means nothing. It's more about whether it's right in the first place, but recents trends have been worrying.
  25. mob1
    It's still terrible for most here
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