mob1
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Everything posted by mob1
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During last week's event, I kept seeing things like "level 4 severe weather event" and had no clue what it was. It's actually a really good system, numbers speak to people.
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If Globals are correct, it might not matter as much if things initiate a bit early as the storm is much more impressive synoptically than what the mesoscale models have. Euro and GFS have a rather impressive deepening LP (sub 990 on the Euro and just a tad higher on the GFS) with some pretty insane upper and mid level winds in the warm sector.
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Not bad for an 18Z sounding. As is always the case, details won't be ironed out till early Thursday morning, but there's a lot to work with here. One standout difference from the last event as that the storm will likely be strengthening as opposed to occluding, and the overall trajectory of the LP might be more conductive for a cleaner storm mode.
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The 0Z GFS has a very ripe environment for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, as do all the OZ runs so far. Timing and features will shift, but verbatim both the NAM and GFS have loaded gun soundings for parts of Mississippi rather early on Thursday.
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That storm approaching Glen Raven looks particularly impressive.
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That cell had a tight couple over High Point before it broadened as it approached areas east of Greensboro. Edit; looks pretty good again now.
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There may have been a small CC drop east of Charlotte but it's in a horrible radar spot. Either way, rotation still looks fairly tight.
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Even if it doesn't produce a tornado, those are some pretty impressive winds south of Greensboro.
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Rotation is definitely tightening on that as it passes Pineville.
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It's kind of cool that literally every cell in that line has some very broad rotation, though the environment upstream still isn't overly impressive.
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So far I'm unenthused with today's threat. Latest HRRR looks pretty meh and ML CAPE doesn't look all that impressive. Obviously, if things clear up it could change quickly.
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The cell SW of Billingsley can probably use a warning.
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I'd be very suprised if the Selma cell doesn't produce a tornado. Velocities are becoming very impressive.
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A couple of new tornado warnings up in AL, let's see what the next few hours bring.
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Confirmed tornado near Sweet Water.
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Huge CC drop on that Campbell storm
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Big TDS west of Campbell Alabama
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The storm near Gilbertown is going nuts
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Extremely tight couplet now.
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Brookwood might be in trouble.
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Rotation tightening up considerably again west of Coaling.
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Rotation looks pretty broad ATM thankfully
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The TDS south of Tuscaloosa is getting ridiculous, something bad is happening unfortunately.
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Rather ominous TDS on the tornado approaching Tuscaloosa.
