mob1

So many different outcomes...

This would be something else

One thing to be mindful of when you have a shortwave riding the backside of an arctic front, is that the timing of the front is often slower to move through than forecasted and could end up favoring areas away from the immediate coast. Not that I expect that to happen, but it's well within the range of possible outcomes and these setups and volatile and unpredictable.

Looks terrible aloft and is hanging back far too much energy, this wouldn't yield anything good for us (other than some consultation snow showers from the northern stream).

There honestly isn't much uncertainty here. All the hype was for 2 GFS runs essentially while other models showed very little.

Exactly In other news, your avatar makes me sad. That was some grade A weather porn.

EPS is coming in hot, very significant improvement.

You're not wrong. Verbatim, it's still an exciting storm for them (heavy snow/rain, wind, and coastal flooding). If the GFS plays out, a weekend at Killington is in order.

It's amusing to watch as we have exactly zero control over it so it's often perplexing as to why people are upset, or in some cases genuinely despise others for getting more snow. I live in NYC but spend a lot of time here and the upstate NY/PA thread (as an avid skier I have a vested interest in both climates) , as well as the Mid Atlantic one (they're a fun group and always seem to be having a good time despite mother nature using them as her personal toilet for years) - and always find it amusing that everyone feels a bit superior over the region that gets less snow than them. There's probably someone from Valdez Alsaka lurking in this thread and rolling his eyes that we're getting excited about a few feet of snow.

Yeah, that band he was referring to was some mesoscale pre band that was like 12-24 hours before the actual storm hit and made the bust a tiny more tolerable (not much though).

27.5 for that one (highest ever) I recorded 30 inches in Brooklyn and was one of my favorite storms (though it was all gone in a few days).

9.8 inches to be exact, with places in eastern LI clocking in near 30 inches. Was quite the disappointment here, but such is the nature of phasing storms and late-blooming Miller B's.

The trend for a faster storm and less wave spacing is concerning. It's not so much the location of the low, it's more that it completely deamplifies as it approaches out longitude and there's nothing but spotty snow showers left (if that).

Now that the current stoms is exiting, we'll see if models shift north a bit as they often have the maritime lows linger a bit too long only to move it out quicker over time. I'll be in Baltimore next week so hopefully we see at least a couple of inches.

Canadian and Euro suppress the living crap of out it so this is just a move towards that outcome. Still a loooooong way out.

UKIE looks a bit too amplified at this point

Snowing pretty good now and sticking a bit to colder surfaces.

Decent snow shower here, though it's 40 degrees so nothing will stick.

The stadium is somewhat NW of the city center and is located between Orchard Park and Blasdell. Radar showed some good bands hitting that area before the radar went down. HRRR has the band sinking south overnight.

But you live 7 inches from the ocean and your average first freeze is far later than his. Either way, everyone and their mother will get a proper deep freeze next weekend or a few days afterward.

Sunday River is opening to passholders tomorrow as well. Looks like tonight is the last good snowmaking window in a while (tomorrow night looks marginal and with a temperatureinversion it'llonly be cold at lower elevations). Models show a more favorable pattern in the 8-10 day range so hopefully it materializes so more resorts can open before Thanksgiving.

Lakeland now getting hurricane gusts as well, and they're pretty far inland.

Tampa Airport still reporting 85 mph gusts.

SPG has over 10 inches of rain in the last 3 hours.

Wow, Sarasota now gusting to over 100 mph on the backside. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KSRQ&hours=72