mob1

NAM going back to a much stronger low (which isn't surprising as it was the weakest model at 12Z by far).

The low slipping east and not getting vertically stacked also tempers the upslope aspect quite a bit.

I almost cancelled my ski trip because it looked like it was going to rain in VT, but now I need the storm to trend back west and a little more amplified ☺.

You said this yesterday when models were well NW of where they are now, the odds of this ending up NW of where the NAM was yesterday are rather low. Although it can definitely trend NW of where it is now.

What seems like a lifetime ago

It's really not a big deal anymore, we're sacrificing a really fun dynamic system so Boston can get s slushy inch of snow (and yes, we totally control the outcome). I'll be in VT most of next week so I hope models trend back a bit to a more dynamic system with a bit more QPF.

While the east trend is nice, it's partly because the flow is very fast so the storm starts amplifying further NE than originally forecasted. Since the storm is riding a frontal boundary, this delay allows the boundary to slip a bit east a potentially give part of the area some snow. The issue with that is that we're sacrificing a much more exciting storm for some wet snow that might not even accumulate in most areas. I'd personally rather get a 960 mb low over NH that gives us 60 mph gusts and severe weather than this. This strung out low (relative to what it showed) also means that the areas that will see all snow will likely get a lot less. I guess I'm a sucker for a dynamic bomb, regardless of how it impacts the weather for my backyard.

LOL

Whatever...

I'm going to Killington on Saturday (through Tuesday) so these subtle shifts east are encouraging as it gives them a tiny bit of wiggle room to trend back NW and still be mostly snow. Worst case scenario, they'll get some upslope snow as the storm departs.

It's nice to see some models showing this. I was afraid of an all-out rainstorm for VT (which might still happen). I will likely be at Killington on Sunday but will change it to Whiteface if it trends NW.

I'll be at Killington this weekend, I hope at least part of the storm is snow there. Any small shift west and it's yet another blinding rainstorm for all of ski fountry

It's impressive that Central Park is still at 32 degrees. Rain is pretty much over here and it's up to 33 degrees, it's pretty cool to watch large lines of ice fall from trees and power lines.

Everything caked in ice, temperature actually dropped over the last 30 minutes or so and is back down to 31.7 Models were mostly too cold aloft and too warm at the surface. NYC and LGA are at 31 as well.

Looking at their webcam, it's absolutely puking snow at Hunter Mountain. I'll be there on Sunday so I hope they can avoid any mixing.

It was definitely too amped but that's a well documented bias of the NAM. At some point yesterday it had sleet into central VT but has since come south a fair bit. On the flip side, some models were too far south. They ultimately met in the middle.

There are many people in this subforum that get frozen precipitation there. There's a world outside of Brooklyn (and it's beautiful).

We need to monitor the wet bulb temperature as precipitation commences. If it's low enough for the city to get down to about 28-29, they might stay below freezing for a while as low level cold is hard to scour out and is often not modelled correctly. Right now (as of 1 o'clock) Central Park was 32/7, obviously the dp will rise a lot as clouds thicken but if they're something like 34/24 when the precipitation moves in they'll probably stay below freezing a bit longer. Given the borderline temperatures, the difference between freezing rain and sleet will be huge, as sleet will accumulate in pretty much any temperature while freezing rain won't be a big deal in anything over 29 or so.

Wow. Good for the Catskill ski resorts who have taken an absolute beating over the last 2 weeks. Hope it's right.

18Z Euro continues to be well south of the NAM, actually has the majority of the storm as snow for far northern posters here (Sussex into Orange County).

This could be a really ugly storm for northern NJ, especially since cold level cold is often undermodeled. I doubt anyone north of I-80 even touches freezing before meaningful precipitation moves out.

Fairly large area of a 10 percent hatched tornado contour added to the 2 day outlook.

2.5" here in SI, definitely more than I thought I would get a few days ago. This puts me over 20 inches for the year. Light snow now.

How bad? Post it please if you can.