mob1
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Tropical Storm Ophelia—Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Mid-Atlantic
mob1 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
Maybe some kind of sting jet on the southern quadrant. It's actually quite common with subtropical "half-canes" at this latitude. -
Recon so far has found flight level winds of 62 knots, surface at 48 knots and extrapolated pressure of 991 mb or so.
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Verbatim, the GFS has a much more significant system the second time around. Some really strong winds and a ton of rain (it also coincides with the full moon). It's in fantasy range though, I can barely get it right 24 hours out.
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It ultimately comes back for another round. Interesting evolution, it'll be fun to see what happens.
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GFS and CMC also have this meandering around all week but way further south than the ICON. With a stout blocking pattern, it would make sense that it'll hang around somewhere.
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For sh!ts and giggles, look the entire ICON run. It has rain throughout the entire run.
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Has the majority of the rain in round 2 (and lots of it).
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Cape Hatteras is gusting to 31 Beaufort Smith Field (KMRH) now gusting to 33 mph as well and Cherry Point to 37. Should pick up later this afternoon. Aso, Buoy off the coast of Carolina gusting to 62 mph.
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Almost every model now takes it from about 1010 mb at initiation to sub 1000 mb tomorrow at noon or so. It'll be interesting to see if it becomes vertically stacked overnight.
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Thanks for pointing it out. I corrected it.
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RGEM has a nice region-wide soaking
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Tropical storm warnings issued to just offshore the jersey coast. Local HWO outlines heavy rain, gusty winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion.
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The pre could have some gusty winds with it as the isobars are elongated northward and has a decent pressure gradient (yes yes, I have a wind fetish).
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Depending on how strong invest 99L gets, there can be some decent winds along the coast as there's a pretty tight pressure gradient between the LP and strong high to the north-northeast.
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06Z Euro has a deeper storm now
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ICON is a region-wife soaker as well. We'll see if the more reliable models follow suit.
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Love the difference for a 3.5 day forecast. If this was a winter storm it'd create some serious chaos.
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High SRH values and backed flow. In general, the eastern part of any significant low pressure system has the highest probabilities for severe weather (that's obviously broad-brushing it a bit, but you get the idea).
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1.53" for the day now. Not too shabby.
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Bango and Augusta gusting to 47 and 49 mph respectively. Overall, pretty meh event.
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Winds in Nova Scotia so far look decent but not overly impressive (topping out at about 65-70 mph from what I've seen so far). Surge might be a different issue.
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There must be some sting jet on the southern end of the transitioning Lee as recon just reported multiple unflagged SFMR readings of 82 knots.
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Right on the border
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Time will tell. Model skill only increases as the event draws closer, and you'd need a pretty significant shift to get a truly impactful event. I was contemplating a trip to eastern Massachusetts but it's probably not worth it at this point.
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This is quickly trending towards a minor event for anyone outside of Maine (with perhaps far eastern New England getting a moderate event).
