mob1

Euro is pretty much mood flakes. Horrible trend.

It's more than merely close, look at the trajectory in the final few frames. It's the NAM so take it with a grain of salt, but verbatim it's great.

Not as bad as I thought, but definitely a step back from 06Z.

Euro is awful as well.

This is so over

This is no good

They're one small negative trend away from getting next to nothing (in fact, they already get that on the CMC).

Canadian is a complete shutout

GFS is horrific

How so? This is nearly identical to the storm earlier this year (don't remember the date) that did the exact same thing. This isn't one of those years that storms come back from the dead.

If I had to pick something positive from this run, it's that the storm is already so strong at that latitude. The 2015 storm that phased too late for us (and buried LI and New England) scarred me for life.

There was a storm earlier this year that had an almost identical progression to this (I'm almost sure it's @Stormlover74's avatar). Models showed an absolute bomb for a few cycles despite a tainted ridge, and eventually it showed the ridge rolling over and the storm stayed wayyyyyy out to sea.

For the UKIE to show 981 mb low with this resolution is a really good sign, these maps usually depict the MLP way too high.

I think in general at this range the Euro tends to be far more amplified with most storms than the GFS. In terms of it being a well-known bias, I think maybe only recently as the Euro used to have incredible verification scores back in the day in the mid range. They tinkered with it a little and now it definitely is a bit more overzealous in the 4-7 day range, whereas the GFS is the opposite extreme. Doesn't mean either one is right/wrong this time, but I don't think the notion should be completely discounted.