mob1

For areas getting sleet on that frame, the issue is below 700 mb.

I'll add one. No single NYC proper airport or ASOS site (JFK, EWR, LGA, and NYC) will report double digit snowfall totals.

Sleet at least adds up and makes the snowpack last, we want to avoid rain though (NAM shows a bit at the tail end for southern parts of the city). Just need the NAM 30-40 miles south and I honestly don't care if we flip to sleet a bit earlier than modeled.

Sleet is all but guaranteed for most of us in the end, what I'm looking at now is heavier precipitation before the switch.

We'll see when the money frames come out, but so far the NAM seems marginally improved.

It's always far too cold/snowy in this range for this type of storm. It's a well known bias, and it can be pretty extreme sometimes.

Plus it's the shallowest of warm layers (something that heavy rates can perhaps overcome). Either way, it's hard to imagine that being ZR.

Relatively speaking (to what I was responding to). For me personally, 6 inches would be a success and anything more gravy. Less than 6 would hurt a bit

Surface temps aren't the issue though, it's the warm nose in the mid levels that are screwing us. No amount of cold waters will offset that.

GFS is always too progressive overall, kills off primaries too quickly, and sucks at thermal profiles that mesoscale models excel at. I'd be cautious with it when it's so different than other models.

Sleet has some serious staying power though, it would preserve the snowmaking for a while (though in this case it's crazy cold afterwards so it wouldn't matter).

The NAM is beautiful. I'd much rather have the thermals trend favorably and then figure out the precipitation distribution and intensity than the other way around.

Probably a touch warmer than 6Z aloft as sleet moves in just a tiny bit earlier. Still a good run, with 7+ inches (at 10 to 1) accumulated by the time sleet moves in.

On top of the synoptic impacts, verbatim this would yield a significant upslope event for the northern Green mountains. Still in fantasy range, but definitely fun to look at.