mob1

NAM is pretty far south with the precipitation so we'll see, but I'm assuming some of this will rotate through in the next 6-12 hours.

There's an obvious tradeoff with both a southern and northern track, I just personally enjoy the wind aspect more. Was hoping to get some of the more extreme outcomes depicted by some morning runs, though verbatim this was likely very overdone.

Not really the point, other models have it as well. You want the storm to move westward at the latitude of Ocean City NJ or so and ideally before it occludes. The models that showed that earlier had the best winds Saturday night into Sunday.

Hi Res NAM (and some other models) have this occurring a bit further north and has much tamer winds than some earlier runs. We'll see if it was just a blip but often as these events approach they trend a bit NE and weaker so we get a bit of a lackluster storm relative to expectations. We'll see how it unfolds, but personally I much prefer the 12Z NAM runs (despite sputting out far less precipitation. Rain events are a dime a dozen, good wind and coastal flooding is somewhat rarer).

Does indeed come ashore in central NJ

Thanks but that's 06Z. 12Z is running now on Pivotal so we'll see in a few.

Can you please post it? Curious is to where exactly it comes ashore.

This is the track that'll yield the worst winds and coastal flooding. The models that have it go over the NY harbor or so are less extreme (this is obviously especially true for the central NJ coastline.

RGEM also shifted SW. If this trend is real (too soon to tell given how globals look), it'll really eat into the precipitation totals for northern areas.

Not sure what it showed in prior runs. Here it is at hour 72 for example, now compare it with the western camps. It does inch it's way west eventually, but at that point the winds have very little bite left.

UKIE is pretty far east, and while it does bring some rain eventually (as the storm retrograde SW) at that point it's largely occluded and winds throughout are very meh.

Big change

NAM is a fairly significant event for the coast

While the HRRR is notoriously too amped and NW at this range, it's too far off of what the 0Z Euro had (though it's far tamer in its latest run) and if other models come in that tucked to the coast I could see this being a more significant wind event than what's currently expected.