mob1

GFS looks nothing like the Euro and is significantly warmer than its own 12Z run. North and west of the city still make out well. Pretty good for the ski resorts.

EWR, JFK, and LGA all gusting to 45 mph now. Decent winds here but nothing particularly noteworthy.

Recon is going in on a SE to NW pass

All kidding aside, they're already gusting past 60 mph there.

There's supposed to be one, but it's been going in circles next to Haiti so I'm not sure what's happening.

Yeah...

Very possible. It takes a LOT to build (and in this case rebuild) a hurricane's core and it's fairly easy to get faked out by warm spots on IR. Even that radar isn't exactly the greatest resolution (and whatever that clearing is, it's very far from the radar site) so it can easily be a displaced MLC. I don't think it's the case though. We'll see from the recon if there are any pressure falls or if the inner structure has improved a bit from the last recon. It's starting to look fairly healthy on IR and radar so it'll be interesting.

That pass was a while ago though, and those radar images (especially the last frame that shows an attempt at building an eye) is from mere moments ago. There's another plane enroute so we'll know soon.

From this radar loop it looks pretty legit.

The mountains of Jamaica are still squeezing out some serious moisture from Melissa, flooding must be really bad there.

That stream looks intense, and they're likely a bit east of the strongest winds.

Recon recorded 173 KT flight level winds. Insane.

Arapahoe Basin opens tomorrow

Pouring rain here and winds picking up. 1.16" so far. JFK gusting to 44 mph at the top of the hour.

Been raining pretty good for the last hour, quickly moved past an inch.