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Blizzard-on-GFS

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Everything posted by Blizzard-on-GFS

  1. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Does I-95 mix?
  2. Blizzard-on-GFS
    How are you feeling about TTN? We've been shafted for years lol. Gfs and Euro jackpot us, while the mesos screw us in different ways. I'm probably a bit more nervous then I should bee..
  3. Blizzard-on-GFS
    The best part is it's still snowing past 84 hours lol
  4. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Do you think the coast could see a blizzard warning? The watch says winds to 50mph. I imagine that might meet blizzard conditions. I haven’t been looking at the winds on the models myself but that’s something to keep an eye on
  5. Blizzard-on-GFS
    For north and west yes there is huge spread. For CNJ pretty much every model shows a foot plus. If people are expecting 4” and get over a foot that is a huge difference on impact that people need to prepare for.
  6. Blizzard-on-GFS
    I have to disagree. I think this map is comically low and is supported by no model. It's straight up misleading. Especially for I-95. Solid model consensus on 10-16".
  7. Blizzard-on-GFS
    After years of having the rug pulled out from with under me in CNJ I think this storm is finally going to deliver! All models are now showing a CCB rotting over I-95. This storm has that classic look that you want for storms that produce in the I-95 corridor. I really think this pans out as 10"+ for most of this subform. I can break my like 4-5 year drought of no double digit snowstorms.
  8. Blizzard-on-GFS
    The ICON should never be used in a professional forecast. I use it at most to confirm a trend from the rest of the model suite. As a stand alone solution it is completely useless...
  9. Blizzard-on-GFS
    I feel like the GFS chased the convection off of the NC coast on this run. You would think the low transfer would happen closer to the benchmark based off H5. Euro depiction makes more sense at the moment. A lot of time here for this to resolve itself.
  10. Blizzard-on-GFS
    I'll take 3" of fluff all day! I hate mixing.
  11. Blizzard-on-GFS
    I was just viewing this run and thinking how much a joke the ICON is lol. It certainly should be used by anyone trying to make an accurate forecast. It's always in la la land in the mid range.
  12. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Anytime you have a track with a low riding up the Delaware Bay into Jersey thats no bueno. Especially if MESO models show the warm layer like the NAM did. Sometimes you have to use Meteorology and not model-ology . Synoptically there's no way we were going to get an all snow outcome in our area with that track. I hope people learned their lesson using clown 10-1 maps and even Kuchera. It's snow depth maps or nothing. This forecast was more simple then people made it out to be IMHO.
  13. Blizzard-on-GFS
    sleet in Lambertville
  14. Blizzard-on-GFS
    It has been snowing in Bordentown for about 30 minutes, we have a solid coating already.
  15. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Yup this is a nowcast event for I-95. My call is 5-20". That should about cover it haha. For trenton I'm calling 8-14" but that could easily fall apart. The mixing line cutoff is going to be brutal.
  16. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Please just let us have this just one lol. It's been years since I saw more than 2" of snow haha
  17. Blizzard-on-GFS
    NAM looks to be coming in better with thermals for marginal areas, HP looks better.
  18. Blizzard-on-GFS
    This frame is a bomb. Dynamics save the day
  19. Blizzard-on-GFS
    GFS coming in NW. Getting real worried for the I95 crew now. This might end up being a North and West storm.
  20. Blizzard-on-GFS
    I'm worried about getting dry slotted and mixing heavily in CNJ as should I-95. I hope the MESOS are overamping this. Sometimes they under do the confluence so we'll see who wins out. Globals look way different at this point. Let's see if they hold serve with the 18z runs.
  21. Blizzard-on-GFS
    No because it's an outlier. I don't live in in SE Pa but there's no way that Northern Bucks County PA gets 5" while northern Ocean County NJ gets over a foot. Also it extends the heavy precip way further north than any other model.
  22. Blizzard-on-GFS
    No chance this happens for the yellow shaded area, huge outlier. Toss it.
  23. Blizzard-on-GFS
    NAM is clueless lol. This run's solution is laughable. I wouldn't even look at the NAM till tomorrow afternoon. No way the cutoff is that sharp and southeastern PA gets shafted like that.
  24. Blizzard-on-GFS
    This map has to be way over done for I95 east. They would see a lot of mixing with this track.
  25. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Euro run is horrible. No one from I-95 east is getting more than slop with that track. Let’s hope the GFS holds serve. The Euro has been over amping some coastal storms in our area the last few years so we have hope.
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