Mr. Windcredible!

Going all in on a GFS 10-day solution...what could go wrong?

Ended up with about 3” here

HRRR is ticking up a bit with each run too. Calls for 1-3” look good at this point. Maybe someone sniffs 4” if banding sets up just right.

Just 2” here...apparently still enough to close school though. Roads already mostly cleared.

Nice mood snows here at the office in East Hartford... Pretty much a snoozefest back at home as expected. Had about 0.6" yesterday afternoon and was over to plain rain by 5-6pm. Washed away overnight. Hoping tonight comes together and delivers a few inches...but I'm never confident in these types of scenarios when depending on re-development and a transition back to snow...rarely works out in our favor down in my neck of the woods.

Impressive trends the past 24 hours to get us into the action even along the shoreline. But between it still being a bit early in the season and a few days out, my expectations remain tempered here. Fully expecting this to tick back north at some point. Still, nice to have something fun to look at on Turkey Day!

being on the shore I'm pretty meh on the 11/8-9 event...don't expect more than some mangled flakes on the tail end if anything. But next week looks interesting. Sub 30 snow on the coast in mid-November? Sign me up! Need to get it within 120 hrs first though.

pretty impressive rain totals in New London county ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... 1.9 W NORWICH 6.15 730 AM 10/17 HADS 3 SSW CENTRAL WATERF 6.14 700 AM 10/17 COCORAHS 2 ENE UNCASVILLE-OXO 5.68 700 AM 10/17 COCORAHS NEW LONDON 5.14 823 AM 10/17 CWOP 1 SW EAST LYME 4.82 600 AM 10/17 COCORAHS 3 WNW OAKDALE 4.41 700 AM 10/17 COCORAHS 2.0 SE NORWICH 4.40 700 AM 10/17 CO-OP OBSERVER 3 NNE NORWICH 4.38 700 AM 10/17 COCORAHS 1 NNW NEW LONDON 4.35 650 AM 10/17 COCORAHS NEW LONDON 4.34 821 AM 10/17 CWOP

Not sure why this cutoff...just saying probably only about 1/2” so far...still bare pavement...not a surprise given warm surface temps at onset...but flake size has increased so expecting things to pick up a bit now

Been pretty slow going here this far...probably

Flakes just started here as well

3.5” here...biggest snow since November and 3rd day in a row with measurable snowfall. Is this what deep deep winter is? .

GFS says I triple my seasonal snow total in the next 100 hours...I just don’t see that happening.

been under it here in Clinton for a couple hours...have picked up a couple inches. Looks like it may be getting ready to fizzle out shortly though

fortunate to get stuck under the same band down here. Only thing that prevented a complete disaster here...might still manage 5", would've been 3" at best without it.

dang...only about an inch back this way. intensity has picked up a bit in the past 1/2 hour, just getting into the edge of that deform band. my nowcast senses telling me we don't sniff the higher range of forecasts back this way...should still be good for 5-6" so long as we are solidly under some deform snows for a bit.

First flakes falling now near the shoreline. And with that I’m off to bed.

Agreed u can't go 6-36"...but also not wise to go with a biblical number as your upper bound when your on the western fringe and there's a great degree of uncertainty. What's the harm in a middle of the road forecast of 12-20"? Really think many got carried away in the hype and the last minute nature of this storm, Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Nice little band for you guys. Wish it would spiral back this way and give us a final hurrah...but looks like just a few flakes. What's your total that way. About 13-14" here. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

All the more reason to have been more conservative back that way. Too much love for the Euro this time around. People I think forget one of the things that makes it so great is its consistency. And even when it's wrong, it can be slow to correct....which is unfortunately what happened here. When it started making small shifts east while several other models had already made larger jumps east, that should've been a clue. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The problem I have is when he admitted his bust in NYC and points west last night...he then went on like a 4 paragraph tirade talking about how irresponsible and flat out stupid TWC was with their forecast when in reality it was way closer than his. I'm sorry, anyone who threw out 2'+ forecasts back to NYC, NWS included, was just asking for trouble. I posted this on the obs thread earlier: "As we reflect on this bust, I think it's important to remember one of the first rules I learned about forecasting...know your climatology and never forecast the extreme/historic until it's absolutely certain. Sometimes I think we all get carried away and latch onto an extreme solution. Then people talk crap on certain models and look for reasons for them to be wrong. Does the Euro have better skill than the NAM and GFS? Sure. Is it infallible? No. This is a great example of why it's important to consider all guidance. " How many 24"+ storms had NYC had in its history? Why the hell would you set that mark as the lower bound of your forecast? Don't go against climo...you'll bust 95% of the time. Was there really harm in forecasting 12-18" in NYC and mentioning the potential for more and then and adjusting up if need be? I simply don't understand why people threw common sense out with forecasting this one. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A lot of people were screwed with that one...myself included. I was recovering from a stomach bug however and don't remember be too bent out of shape. This one seems like it'll be more like Feb 2013...screw zone will still be 18" of snow. But I don't buy into the idea of one giant deform ban like Kevin is suggesting. Subsidence will set up somewhere...will it be central CT or a bit further east?

Think most of us get paranoid right before the event when a sucker hole is likely. It's one thing to have a storm whiff one way or another...but when everyone around you gets nailed and you can't manage persistent heavy snow, it's the worst IMO. We've all been there. But if you get lucky things break your way. I remember being paranoid about getting sucker holed in the Feb 2013 storm...most of the models had this area in the screw zone...I was pretty pessimistic up until the deform band moved ashore from LI around 5-6pm. 30" later...

Yeah...it was unlike anything I'd ever seen during a snowstorm. I remember sitting down to dinner and I heard what sounded like water pouring off the roof in a heavy downpour. It was not the normal sleet pinging we're all familiar with. I stepped outside and was like "WTF?" My first thought was it certainly couldn't be sleet...way too big...but the thought of hail seemed just plain stupid. Truly baffling. It mixed for a good 2.5 hours probably. We would've had 3"/hr snowfall rates easy had it been snow. That mixing robbed me of my first 30"+ snowfall. My total was like 27.5"...without that mixing I think we easily would've approached 3 feet. It also made for a nightmare cleanup. We had like 15" of heavy wet snow, a 2-3" solid ice layer topped by another 10" of powder. We have a small driveway...single lane about 3 car lengths...and I spend 8 hours in total the next day digging it out. Snowblowers were useless. My neighbor across the street had a plow. Took him 6 hours just to get it out. We got lucky in that the town kept up with our street pretty well throughout the storm, so the street was passable by mid day the day after the storm. But places that weren't touched frequently through the storm ultimately requiried front loaders to dig out the streets. Plows couldn't handle it in many places. It really made me realize how much of a difference there is between 2 feet of snow and 3 feet in terms of cleanup time. The general public didn't seem to be able to grasp that. Lots of complaints about how long the clean up took...but the scale of the storm just simply isn't something we have to deal with on a regular basis. I'd give just about anything to live through another storm like that! Shame that its unlikely we see something like that again in our life times.

U of Washington has a well respected program. I know their grad program was always listed as one of the top 5 (along with PSU, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Colorado) when I was in school 10 years ago. GT also has a program...I know a guy who got his grad degree from there. Not sure how good their undergrad program is...probably middle of the road though.