Mr. Windcredible!

still looking light some flurries or very light snow will develop across CT the next couple of hours...pretty well modeled the last day or so. nothing crazy, but some mood flakes to help whet our appetites for tonight/tomorrow.

I said it after 18z…Reggie has been surprisingly consistent with the placement of the deformation the past 4 runs or so…while other models were still bouncing around quite a bit.

Outer Banks N of Kitty Hawk got a solid 3-6” just last week. I can’t imagine they see decent snows like that more than once a decade. To have a chance at it twice in the span of about a week must be unheard of. What a winter for them if it verifies!

RGEM has been surprisingly consistent the past few runs with the placement of the deform goodies. Moreso than any other model at this point.

I grew up in Pittsburgh. I was in 8th grade in March of 1993...and also on vacation in Florida for the Superstorm. As a huge snow weenie it was a crushing disappointment missing out on it. The squall line/winds in Florida with that one really did nothing for me, and having no internet access and limited channel selection in a cheap motel there was really no way to track it either. Thankfully, we got nailed with the 94 storm which helped make up for missing 93. And of course 94 was a January storm so the snow stuck around and kept us out of school for a week. Good memories of that one.

Close to an inch here. Not normally the type of event that works out for us along the shoreline, so I’ll take it!

Nothing like tracking an event for multiple days to end up with a quarter of an inch Never was expecting much...but figured we'd at least manage an inch or two.

It is lame. But I think those of us with bare ground are just hoping for something to whiten up the ground ahead of this next cold snap. I say pick the "snowiest" model solution for your backyard and cling to it for dear life.

After the 12z there's not too much guidance that supports more than a 1-2" event. HRRR typically cuts back QPF once you start getting with 18-24 hours...and let's be honest, really isn't a piece of guidance we should put a lot of faith in more than 6hrs out. I'm guessing it probably performs a bit better in an event like this where there's not a bunch of convection and complex dynamics to deal with...but still not holding my breath that it scores a coup. Was hoping to see this ramp up a little more as we closed in...but about out of time. 1-2" is still better than a goose egg though.

Euro finally comes aboard and NAM jumps ship. Go figure.

Not sure why most of my post got cutoff…here’s the full text… Too much support for this event from the mesos/gfs/Canadian to think it misses completely. I could see the NAM being a bit too juiced and it turning into a 1-2” type deal south of 84 vs a 2-4” regionwide event. And given that the Euro is on its own for this and the weekend event makes me think it’s clueless at the moment. I think 1-3” from pike south is a good first call. Anything to whiten the ground before the weekend arctic blast is fine by me!

Too much support for this event from the mesos/gfs/Canadian

It's pretty remarkable how close the SLP track through central PA has been on the operational GFS the past 3 cycles...and even that isn't a huge jump from yesterday's 18z run. So aggravating that we only seem to see this sort of run to run consistency when it's an inland runner.

About a month out...I predicted my first measurable snowfall of this year to within 1 day. Pleased with my now proven long range forecasting abilities, I immediately decided to forecast a 36" blizzard for CT on January 18. You're welcome CT posters.

That's the 18z NAM weenie run all of CT has been waiting for the past 3 days

I hate to drag this back up after all the back and forth bickering last night...but you said you remembered it being before Christmas. Are you by chance thinking of Dec 19-20, 2009? Still not 30-35"...but it was likely double digits in Coventry going by snowfall maps. Had about 20" here in Clinton. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/19-Dec-09.html

You really lucked out on the sweet spot there. congrats! hoping it slides east just a bit so I can at least record something more than a trace out of this one.

I'm at 32.5 now. If either the air or ground temp was just a couple degrees cooler, we'd be all coated up here. I've probably got 0.25" of slush on my glass patio table...but the grass is frosted at best and still bare in most spots. Nice dusting on the pine trees and leaf piles though. Exciting stuff

Some whitening of colder surfaces here near the shoreline. Heavy heavy trace

yeah...lull was expected before it picks back up again later

Surprisingly gusty here in the past 30 minutes too…wasn’t really expecting the winds until later

Yeah…hourly rate probably not far off. Radar peaked between 3-3.5”/hr. But my total is around 3.6” vs. 5”+ on radar. Whatever…either way…crazy rates there for a bit, but worst seemed to move they pretty quick.

Crushed everywhere. But yeah, a little over 2” in 30 minutes here. Has quieted down a bit now…only 2”/hr instead of 4”/hr [emoji13]

While I question exactly how reliable it is, Knowing my PWS wasn’t designed for these type of rates, it’s been around 4”/hr rain for the past 10min….nearly 1” during that time.

Flood waters in the terminal at EWR