Maybe but you and I and Pickles all can be wrong. I think we can agree persistence can be the way to forecast until it isn't. Eventually persistence doesn't persist
luck
/lək/
noun
1.
success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through actions.
My take
weather is action the past does not predict the future. You have referenced a casino many times I fail to see any correlation. We failed to get snow because it was physically impossible nothing more nothing less
There have been countless years of excess precip low snow. The atmosphere doesnt give a crap about correlation either obviously there are no 1 to 1 correlations
The original assumptions we all made were wrong. LR and Medium rangers have ions to go before snowfall predictably gets anywhere close. My 8 week forecast was my worst ever. I knew extreme cold would come based on the pattern what I didnt know was it was transient and that was made with preconceived notions. The idea that luck played any part is ridiculous. We were above normal in precip and temp and this time it equated to rain, that happens all the time in history. Its not chaos its simply how the hemispheric pattern set up. Plain and simple it was mistook ahead of time. I wouldn't say give me that pattern and it would snow alot because if we had the same exact pattern you would get the same exact result. No excuses we saw something that wasn't there but may I add yet
Well seeing as you quoted Tom and he, right in his statement, said he had the wrong idea due to a preconceived notion you might want to not take everything so personally cuz I wasn't referencing you
Euro is all alone on the battlefield with Monday lots of time to watch. I have noticed a trend LR for a big ridge overhead day 9ish. We probably need to get this done next week or we lose the STJ. Damn though, agreement across all modeling for big rains in the Tennessee valley with amounts over 10 inches . Some indication of a Positive PNA to end the month.