Potent Arctic short wave pivots along the southern New England coast
with comma-head precip overspreading the entire region, intensity
peaking around 06z. As cold air advection increases and column cools
any rain showers early this evening flips over the snow later this
evening and overnight, all areas including Cape Cod and the Islands.
In fact the entire region could pickup a coating to an inch or two
possible as cross sections reveal most of the lift occurring in the
snow growth region, maximizing snowfall potential. Tho with min
temps hovering around freezing across eastern MA snow accumulations
may be confined to colder/non paved surfaces here. However
significant accumulations (4-8") are possible in the upslope
regions of the Berkshires (above 1000 ft) and perhaps 1-3" in the
Worcester Hills into Tolland county of CT per the Hi Res guidance.
Not enough confidence to expand Winter Weather Advisory into the
Worcester Hills and northeast CT, but if 12z model guid continues
this increased qpf trend an advisory may be needed.
As 980 mb low tracks along the ME coast, strong NW winds on the
backside of the low overspreads southern New England. As CAA
increases low level lapse rates steepen and support NW winds gusting
up to 40 mph at times. Strongest winds will be across western MA/CT
where gusts up to 45 are possible. If 12z models trend upward with
winds may need a wind advisory for western MA/CT tonight.
Temps falling into the upper 20s across CT and western-central MA
with low 30s in RI and eastern MA.