Ginx snewx

-4.6 850 wind, -4.2 MSLP, -4.0 surface wind on NAEFS ens from last night.

Just a guess right now. But as always coasts are ripe for the biggest gusts

Couple of caveats to wind. Gravity waves and monsoon rains can tap and wash out inversions to the point damaging winds can occur. Trees are leaved and many are dead, lowering wind speed potential for damage. Still early on the wind dept. Sucks BOX radar decided to go off line, yes decided. OKX velocity is bent right at my location. I used BOX during high wind events and it works great here. We wait

Looking at some things right now but since this is overnight tomorrow I will wait for tomorrows runs before having to get help to pull my genny out of the shed. Oct 17 keeps dancing in my head though.

Since it looks like we set low barometric pressures in the area for October probably uncharted territory for deepening rate in Oct too, hard to find analogs

Just because many don't have access . Mslp. No conjecture about wind. Just showing model timing and track.

Congrats Boston on the cane on the 3k

Lol its actually in that post

Nah, not at the 12 hr before kickoff run. 25 to 30% works here.

See what tomorrow nights mesos have

He said in that tweet, thunder storm winds in the negative trough. I know Forky can't read but et tu?

We take 25% off. What makes me a little unsettled for gusts higher than 40 are how the mesolows fuji around each other on the Euro. Those dry slot gravity waves took us out before too. Just checked with Fisher, baro low record in Oct in Boston is 982, good possibility this takes it down. Dont think this has enough spatial time to ramp up huge areal area winds but if as modeled depict, some areas could be in for a good blow

Why

990 to 976 in 6 hours. Wow. Deluge with 35 to 40 mph winds gusts to 60 on the coast.

Sustained at 50 on your Charlie site

Road trip to P Town.

Its theme

IDK wind and rain on the Cape were impressive less than those crazy runs for sure . 50 miles off. I don't even take verbatim outputs until 18 hrs ahead. Winter especially. No sense getting worked up. We post maps and outputs to generate discussion. Naysayers and doomsayers fail all the time. Best to watch closely trends and of course the actual weather. Just dismissing out of hand when viable options are on the table always strikes me as weird. Of course the odds are they will be right but when they are not ..... stay aware

Not seeing anything special on NAEFS, yet

You know the difference between the 2? What underperformed last week? If you got hyped on some bad runs 3 days before the storm, your bad. It was an ocean storm from the get go, not inland.

Yall remember Oct17 with that meso cyclone doing all the damage. If , big if , the Euro materialized then SE SNE will have issues. Gravity waves were a major issue. No way to know what will happen until we get within 18 hrs but I would pay attention. One thing that is sure to happen. Ray will call it forgettable. Lol

Pickles missed some important deets. You got smoked on the Euro, model fact not any interpretation.

That jet on all models is extreme, the NAM incorporates it unlike the others at 18Z although the Euro did at 12 Z. As pointed out earlier in this thread that jet is a huge player

NAM actually slows stalls and captures as it approaches the Maine coast. Pretty spectacular model.run at any rate

I have zero problems with people forecasting fast flow a week to 10 days out, 2.5 months is voodoo but lets get back on topic. Helluva subsume off the NJ coast