We go thru this every year. Climo for Nov is 1 to 2 inches. Dec 8 to 12 with 75% of that last two weeks. If we get 4 to 6 inches by Dec 7th we made climo. Real climo Winter starts Dec mid month for almost everyone south of the Pike including the mastiffs
IDK hard to understand modeling. Such wild swings. Pretty juicy system.Climo and current radar say you may be getting better than that. Start low and amp up in the morning