Another 24 hrs of model ingest and it should be obvious. Jerries antecedent air mass is great. If modeling is correct there will be a WAA burst then some lulls before we meat. Expect bust calls as it evolves. Patience grasshoppers Blockbuster
So is the IOD. Unless you live in Australia. Many assumptions made that have alternative explanations. I have not seen anything that indicates the atmosphere is in an El Nino state