For what it's worth, Tip said we didn't know about Jan 15 early in the month. In fact some of us on Jan 3rd were touting a huge massive change around the 16th. It's all in the Jan 15 thread. Quite the read of Debbie's
Maybe you should separate your reanalysis of last winter from your current outlook, maybe scale back on the repetitive explanation of indices. Good forecast so far.
If you ignored meso outputs you wouldn't have known it was coming up there. Deep winter up there, maybe a devastating ice storm to make it look like Hoth
I didnt think the 6z Euro looked any better. Less than an inch for most cept Cape and Islands. With HRRR paltry it's going to take a bigger wholesale shift by 18z in those meso models. Too bad