When you trade great winter storms for forecast verification, what the point? I would rather horribly bust in favor of a big winter storm, it's not like you do it for a living.
I would say that the week from the 3rd to the 9th is when we would have the best chance and hope that SE ridge,negative PNA is transient after. Teleconnections are not that encouraging
Disagree . That period between Nov 8th and Dec 8th had a lot of similarities, no 2 analogs being exact but hemispherical close enough. Judging by 2 m temp similarity not as cold but analogs are based on upper air