Mr Drag says
Posting the standard GEFS/EPS ensemble 500MB winds for 12z/3 (decent RRQ)... and the now westward tracking EPS/GEFS all issued 00z/31. My take: the east coast is in the slot for at a minimum, dangerous rip currents, pockets of excessive 6-12 hour rainfall, preceded in some places by 12-18 hours of a possible PRE, for which I'll add composites and references a little later this morning, As for wind/tornadoes/surge...east of track wherever that may end up.
I do see Isaias impacting the NY forum (separate thread on NY forum and will offer a bit more comment there) with a minimum, HIGH RISK dangerous RC for s coastal LI and heavy rain for most if not all the forum as depicted in this mornings WPC D4-5.
Correct me if I'm wrong: I think the NHC OFFICIAL is from the 21z/30 advisory?