Ginx snewx

Yikes

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=ctlond

Definitive paper on 2010 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta2013-03.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjqu9bgneTtAhXwtlkKHWWLBUoQFjABegQIAhAF&usg=AOvVaw3uQQHblhASCQprTtUaHQDT

That was a warm core spin up that Phil, Messenger and I tracked all night from south of the Cape to Boston to SNH. Eeks videos were awesome from the beach. That was a very special night

Lol it was Dendrite. Please go away. Some people without tags have extensive experience and knowledge that adds to our discussions, all you add is stirring up trouble.

Hope so. The meso models are very concerning, global models just don't have the fine tuning mesos do. Point in time bufkit has issues with spatial fast moving lines. Let's hope you are correct Paul. Merry Christmas my good friend

GfS bufkit?

Go away

Exactly what I tried to convey 1717 can't attack you because of your tag lol. Dude needs to sulk in the background this is all over his head.

1717 is just a trouble maker. You and I know Wiz, we can discuss anything without personal attacks. I agree with most of your assumptions however 2 concerns, fine line convection and dry slots in between rain bands. I so don't want this storm

Any dry slot in between bands could promote quick mixing as well

Lol if you only knew

Hmmm The guidance continues to beat the drum on potential for a high end, potentially damaging wind event. As the parent low generates a secondary low along the frontal boundary over the mid Atlantic a very robust low level jet develops that would be unusually strong for this time of year. We`re talking 75 to 85 kts at 925 mb and 85 to 95 kts at 850 mb. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, the EPS and NAEFS ensembles continue to depict anomalies of >5 standard deviations and maxed out percentiles! So, while historically these southerly wind events struggle to mix down and modeled soundings would indicate as much, the anomalous warmth that comes with it should help to break that subtle inversion enough to mix down some of those wind, and with that magnitude, even 50-60% would cause scattered downed trees and power outages. Compounding that risk is the heavy downpours and potential fine line of convection moving through in the morning that would help to mix down the stronger gusts n additional concern is with strong to potentially damaging winds Thursday night into early Friday morning. Models continue to show 65 to 75 kt winds at 950 mb during this period. The core of this low level jet is most likely to pass over Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Forecast soundings indicate an inversion around or just below these high winds and this is typically a difficult forecast on how much will mix down to the surface, but with models continuing to show signs of a potential squall line or convective cold frontal band, this would enhance the chances for stronger winds to mix down to the surface. If this type of rain band/squall line materializes, the winds would effectively weaken considerably once it passes, similar to what occurred on November 15. Advisory-criteria winds could occur for the inland areas. Strongest sustained winds and gusts would be from late evening Thursday through around daybreak Friday.

Models can't handle low level lapse rates in these low top convective situations. You have downplayed winds pretty much everytime while we end up with power loss and trees in houses. Think out of the box you have put yourself in.

Lol. Drought is such a joke in NE.

6Z Euro

Wish we were here

Anomalously strong low level jet crosses the region Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning. Both ensemble systems NAEFS and ECMWF have 850 mb and 1000 mb wind anomalies 5+ standard deviations along with percentiles MAXED out! In addition, deterministic guidance continues to trend upward with low level 925 mb jet up to 75-85 kt of wind streaming across CT-RI and eastern MA Thu night into Fri morning. While models do struggle with low level lapse rates on southerly wind events, model time sections indicate 50-60 kt of wind extending downward to below 1 kft! That's typically a good signal for 50+ kt reaching the surface. Another rule of thumb, taking 60- 70% of 925 mb (75-85 kt) jet, which still yields 50+ to the surface. Furthermore, model guidance advecting dew pts into the mid 50s ahead of the front. This low level moisture and warmth will ease the low level inversion and increase the wind threat. Even MOS guid for some of coastal locations indicating 40+ kt of sustained wind! So in a nutshell, ensembles, deterministic guidance and model soundings all scream the potential for a high end wind event and residents need to prepare for possible power outages Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning. This combined with holiday approaching will issue a 5th period High Wind Watch for RI and Eastern MA, this includes Boston, Providence, Cape Cod and the Islands. After collaboration with WFO ALY & OKX will hold off on interior CT given highest threat is RI and Eastern MA as low level jet continues to increase as it advects across those areas. However later shifts may have to expand high wind watch westward into CT.

Yesterday's run

Is this current obs thread or Grinch?

Outside climo I would assume is not good

He posts here. Met FXWX, great guy and excellent Met

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

Not surprised I went from 55 to 62

Might be a fraud 5 but ya can't deny they are special when they come in like this