Ginx snewx

Good thing I didn't die

Lol my wife's name is Cindy Louise. She gets ribbed constantly. I bought her a Cindy Lou who doll once, yea not a good idea lol

Am I the only one who sees a possible sub tropical spin up coming out of the Bahamas adding to the mix?

Looks oh so familiar down here. Merry Christmas Mike. I was reading the Feb 2010 paper you contributed on. Now that was epic

Just great, Isaias was a 3 and they said 4 the day before

Rudolph

Wind and dews and poof.This is NOHRSC for my station

Ah you will see how time slows down, stress leaves, you do what you want when you want, no alarm clock, no kids to watch, its amazing, like being a kid again. Seriously! I am having fun, little detour but back on the horse. Life is great.

Yikes

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=both&stn=ctlond

Definitive paper on 2010 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta2013-03.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjqu9bgneTtAhXwtlkKHWWLBUoQFjABegQIAhAF&usg=AOvVaw3uQQHblhASCQprTtUaHQDT

That was a warm core spin up that Phil, Messenger and I tracked all night from south of the Cape to Boston to SNH. Eeks videos were awesome from the beach. That was a very special night

Lol it was Dendrite. Please go away. Some people without tags have extensive experience and knowledge that adds to our discussions, all you add is stirring up trouble.

Hope so. The meso models are very concerning, global models just don't have the fine tuning mesos do. Point in time bufkit has issues with spatial fast moving lines. Let's hope you are correct Paul. Merry Christmas my good friend

GfS bufkit?

Go away

Exactly what I tried to convey 1717 can't attack you because of your tag lol. Dude needs to sulk in the background this is all over his head.

1717 is just a trouble maker. You and I know Wiz, we can discuss anything without personal attacks. I agree with most of your assumptions however 2 concerns, fine line convection and dry slots in between rain bands. I so don't want this storm

Any dry slot in between bands could promote quick mixing as well

Lol if you only knew

Hmmm The guidance continues to beat the drum on potential for a high end, potentially damaging wind event. As the parent low generates a secondary low along the frontal boundary over the mid Atlantic a very robust low level jet develops that would be unusually strong for this time of year. We`re talking 75 to 85 kts at 925 mb and 85 to 95 kts at 850 mb. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, the EPS and NAEFS ensembles continue to depict anomalies of >5 standard deviations and maxed out percentiles! So, while historically these southerly wind events struggle to mix down and modeled soundings would indicate as much, the anomalous warmth that comes with it should help to break that subtle inversion enough to mix down some of those wind, and with that magnitude, even 50-60% would cause scattered downed trees and power outages. Compounding that risk is the heavy downpours and potential fine line of convection moving through in the morning that would help to mix down the stronger gusts n additional concern is with strong to potentially damaging winds Thursday night into early Friday morning. Models continue to show 65 to 75 kt winds at 950 mb during this period. The core of this low level jet is most likely to pass over Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Forecast soundings indicate an inversion around or just below these high winds and this is typically a difficult forecast on how much will mix down to the surface, but with models continuing to show signs of a potential squall line or convective cold frontal band, this would enhance the chances for stronger winds to mix down to the surface. If this type of rain band/squall line materializes, the winds would effectively weaken considerably once it passes, similar to what occurred on November 15. Advisory-criteria winds could occur for the inland areas. Strongest sustained winds and gusts would be from late evening Thursday through around daybreak Friday.

Models can't handle low level lapse rates in these low top convective situations. You have downplayed winds pretty much everytime while we end up with power loss and trees in houses. Think out of the box you have put yourself in.

Lol. Drought is such a joke in NE.

6Z Euro

Wish we were here