The main forecast concern is the potential for a few strong to
severe t-storms in the afternoon in the interior. Mid level
shortwave will be moving across Gt Lakes with a pre-frontal trough
moving into SNE in the afternoon which will be a focus for
convection. Decent instability develops in the interior with CAPES
1000-1500 J/kg and increasing wind field results in deep layer shear
30-35 kt supporting storm organization and potential severe weather.
CAMs are showing some broken line segments moving into interior SNE
during afternoon with damaging wind being the main threat. However,
forecast soundings also show decent turning in the lowest 3km in the
CT valley with effective SRH 100-200 m2/s2, aided by backed low
level flow and there is favorable 0-3km CAPE, so can't rule out an
isolated tornado with any discrete storms. Will continue to monitor
with later forecasts.