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Ginx snewx

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Everything posted by Ginx snewx

  1. 1/3rd seeing as the GEFS are usually non dispersive from the OP not bad
  2. "Which can still be a decent event, but not what it could have been for SNE."
  3. Unless of course we end up with a UKMET solution or like many members of the GEFS EPS. Your statement is pretty concrete 5 days out. Absolutely could be right but throwing in the towel day 5 on 75 mile shifts?. IDK
  4. That TPV just sucks up that 5H north. Weather is so interesting and complex. Slow that TPV down a hair and.....
  5. Could be 940 and East. What us driving this bus is the farther west movement of the PV in Canada on modeling leading to less confluence over us.
  6. You saw the 6Z mean and the EPS precip maps I posted does that look way west up the Hudson Valley to you? Today at day 5 I am sticking with Jan climo , over the Cape
  7. Don't think anyone wanted it weaker but geez modeling changed from day 5/6 for that storm imagine that
  8. Get inside 90 hrs. How can people forget the dozens and dozens of model failures this year outside 4 days Ops and Ensemble
  9. Modeling often swings like a windshield wiper far left then far right and usually ends up within 20⁰ of the middle
  10. The EPS mean over the Cape with associated qpf pattern doesn't scream west to me. But trend west is real over 2 cycles
  11. Funny the first 200 times. Whatever happens happens but you also had us rain last Friday so there is that
  12. It's only been 36 hours that modeling has even had this storm. Started Carolinas out to sea and then 0Z yesterday GFS had it coming up the coast. Cmon
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