So for many years I have tried, somewhat successfully to figure out the Hemispheric patterns through use of multi modeling analogs combining 7 models consisting of globals Ens and long lead probability charts, creating my own sensible weather ideas. I have completed Mid Nov through Christmas using those ideas rolling forward. Good chance we go BN for the last week of Nov right up to the New Year with mild days outnumbered 2 to 1. Storms and rumors of storms.