Ginx snewx

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pivotal

Thnx

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Couple nice beefy SWFEs in the extended on 18z GFS. EPS hinted at this too which is why it has been showing some snow in the 11-15 day. 
 

Would be nice to track some higher QPF systems. These less than half inch QPF events are getting brutal. 

Hate to say it because Scooter will just mock me with his passive aggressive one word posts but that's a snow blitz. We just want that Jan 20th week to snow every year. But hey Scooter Epicosity is saved for ya know big stormy periods. But maybe soon enough there summer boy.

FYI New Englands 4 seasons are the absolute best. Ski Sun Surf we have it all.

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is mostly rain for many. Torch at 925

?where do you get 925 temps on 18z Euro 

52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Most of the areas in NNE have unimpressive or low depths. Mostly single digit depths outside of elevation. 

Post week of thaw with rain. Congrats by the way on a 2 week snow blitz to end Jan

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

That ain't my definition of buried lol

Not bad after a week of thaw. Those totals will skyrocket further the next 2 weeks

32 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

So finished a stretch of overnights ydy morning, and slept in long, so just looked at everything in the last hr, including previous runs.

It's odd.  You look at the solid full latitude 500 trough and it axis, and you wonder why a weak wave scoots out quickly ahead of the upper support, taking the baroclinic zone w/ it!!!     Looking at 500 alone, it should much better at the sfc for a decent coastal.   Also, now the models don't develop any real strong sfc low?  Huh?  Again, the 500 alone does not suggest this should happen!

Big difference than 24 hr ago as well.  The 500 cuts off *well* W of  New England and is stronger than ydy, and moves over right over the region.  That should promote a sfc low *not* scooting out to sea.  However, it's not titled below.  The 700 low is co-located and goes right over the region, so we get dry slotted!  But we never got any sig precip to begin w/!  CoastalWx's worst nightmare!  LOL.

Moisture is quite limited w/ the upper low, so that will just mean half-decent snows across the mtns of NNE probably.

Ydy was better actually, since the 500 low cut S of the region.

And the two decent troughs that occur down the road, can't do much either, at least on the 06z GFS!  The 06z ECMWF looks better for something this weekend.

It's been piecemeal in regards to snowfall across the region so far this winter, no one storm can deliver widespread mdt-hvy SN.  Just sub-regions, like LI to Cape Cod and NNE get localized decent snows.  Now, we get a fragmented storm coming that that can't consolidate right!?  I can see now why CoastalWx is really getting ticked!  
 

Great synopsis. Thanks.Yes I was pumped to see the 5H CLOSED S  of us. Whatever made modeling move 300 miles ???

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't agree. Keep the ridge tilted positively like that and the surface will underperform.  This is why the dynamics and BZ are escaping east on those solutions. 

A closed ULL that deep will develop a LP in its NE quadrant.  Inflow off the ocean wlll provide seeder feeder. Closed in this situation absolutely matters 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Ginx snewxGive me a ridge like the first and 3rd image, then H5 matters....second image is when it's more futile.

What matters is when it just quickly opens up and dissipates

6 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Today is the 15 year anniversary of one of CTs biggest snowstorms on record. BDL #1 all time with 24". And overall probably the 2nd biggest (for CT in general) in the past 30 years. 

Just finished redoing all these maps for accuracy and to include Lower Northeast view with climo sites. 

One of the most perfect radar evolutions for SNE and especially CT.

This storm is actually the only storm i've done that has a 40"+ contour other than 1888. Savoy, MA 40.5", Florida 33", North Haven 30.5"

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/post/15-years-ago-january-2011-blizzard

Contours only

6 inch per hour with over 50 mph winds in that heavy yellow band that rotated off the big pnd

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS is able to swing that shortwave negative to our south which is what really helps juice that QPF up….prob a lot of members with a full blown CCB into eastern SNE …and not just swing negative, but allow it to gain some latitude while it does

 

I was told 5H didn't matter 

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Inverted trough.....wow, awesome.

I would hit the GFS all day. Toss those qpf numbers.  Look to that 850 inflow. Getting better 

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, hopefully the ULL keeps trending deeper and more closed so Hyannis can do better.

Some day you will live in  place where it snows everyday and you won't have time to whine about snow that hasn't happened yet.

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Honestly  probably what will happen.

2nd storm

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean it's not a major snow either way....maybe the south coast gets 4" instead of 2"...the mositure is offshore. 

OK what ever.  4 days is an eternity. My pont was the Euro continuing to improve 

59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really don't think it matters.

Of course it matters whether a closed H5 opens up quickly or stays intact. Basic meteorology 

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just keep deepening it and good things happen. 

Thats exactly my point. Scooter be damned

Huge huge improvement on the Euro hopefully that 5H trend holds. Very snowy 12 Z Run

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

 

Rocking 

16 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro still wants to open that 516 up too quickly. Each run though keeps it closed later and later. 

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s really disjointed and never consolidates. Euro with a dual low look

Watch that 500 evolution its getting better and better

Euro still wants to open that 516 up too quickly. Each run though keeps it closed later and later. 

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I lost them. 

Ray stole them he was so pissed off.

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Anyone remember where the keys to the bus are?

Euro definitely trying. Bus keys in Scooters desk . He left them there Jan 2022

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’m happy now 

Been a while since we saw that kind of storm

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is going to be better

East Coast Mauler