Ginx snewx

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sometimes it’s hard to resist the temptation and

You can’t help yourself .. from falling….

Tell me what you think about your situation
Complication, aggravation
Is getting to you

The Sunshine scares the daylights out of me.

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Euro with the 582dm heights into WV/MD and 576 to the NY/PA borer to kick off December. That would be some impressive warmth ahead of the cold front into the mi-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast (unless there happens to be any wedging). 

EPS unleashing some cold 

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, 19 here.

Saturday bottomed out around 29.  As I passed by ponds en route to disk golf I noticed ice had crept out about 4 to 6' from the shores, so thin it was gone by early afternoon.  Hadn't seen that in recent autumns (I'm the type of nerd that noticed little details like that).   Recent Novembers hadn't provided for that intermediate stage in inland ice, but this year hearkens back to that. 

I didn't venture out this morning but I'm sure at 19 there was probably more than just shore ice.    

If lakes in November can hold a duck the rest of winter is mud and muck???

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey if we somehow make it through without warmth, you can rapture me with those burly, furry, ACATT arms. 

Lost 90 lbs down to high school playing weight 234. Hopefully hit 225 by New Year's. Good eating and a honey do list longer than a Mt Mansfield winter.

Prefrontal days are always warmer than normal especially this late in fall.

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can only lead them to water 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

lol. We will likely have a mild period near or after turkey day. Has nothing to do with it. You whack to that index every year.

Lol You can't lead a blind parade down a straight street ever  since you have had 3 bad winters. Confirmation bias to the max.

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah down here not really sure you can really define that. but this makes sense now. I remember a comment from FXWX yesterday that said it's exceptionally tough down here...which it is. 

And only 50% of Novembers have an inch or more of snow despite some peeps memories 

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah down here not really sure you can really define that. but this makes sense now. I remember a comment from FXWX yesterday that said it's exceptionally tough down here...which it is. 

Here 2003 and 1961 rule the roost

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s not what’s happening. The pattern still isn’t good for anything frozen really until we get towards the first week and after in December. A random cool shot was always in the cards.

BS you were calling for Banana hammocks and flip flops for Tday.  I tried to tell you to lean much colder due to EPO drop. Never mentioned snow.

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Lol on the people believing It was going to be 70 on Thanksgiving. We tried to tell them.

 

Pretty much every time a Neg EPO pops models miss the cold extent. Been harping for a week plus. 

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

It’s 11/18. Who cares if the cold dumps mostly out west for a week or two toward Dec? Pack usually starts settling in here 12/10-15 so it’s nbd to me until then. Anything between now and then typically melts away at some point anyway. 

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

No disagreement there. 

My number one overall concern is just regarding the flow...it just remains overly strong and as long as that continues we're just going to have to really rely on threading the needle alot more and end up dealing with more "near misses" than not. 

My climo is 4 inches between now and mid Dec so expectations are really low. Give me a solid cover and cold 

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Steve is dangerous now. I wish we could go back to the days when he had shitty phone pics

Lol. LFG

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I always thought the bias of the models mishandling of EPO at times had a greater impact regarding the dump of cold air just east of the Rockies. A -EPO is great in the sense that it delivers the Arctic air into the lower 48's but we also need a few other things align to get that to propagate east (without moderating). The overall structure of things seem like any colder shots here would be brief (though we probably still end up a  bit below average). 

We don't need minus 25 850s . Climo says the upper Midwest gets bitterly cold. All we need is BN, some moisture and the right path. Watch as each run gets colder as we get closer to the end of the month. Movie seen.

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You asked you receive

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Oh man Steve found the AI.

Maybe he can make a vid of a snowstorm in Weymouth again. Although it may get confused and give Scoot 5 legs.

You asked you receive

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh. Cold is going to plains first. Need the PV further SE. Needs work. 

Isn't that how it always progresses. That's a super negative EPO push underestimated by models 

43 minutes ago, Layman said:

Still snowing nicely up north. The crows seem to have formed a committee to hash out the details of the pending warmup. 

13 hours ago, FXWX said:

As modeled and shown on these 2 graphics, do not represent a very cold pattern from eastern NY on across New England.  More of a normal to slightly colder than normal conditions.  The bulk of the cold will be centered well to the west, which is typical of weak La Nina events.  Some of the cold will bleed eastward but no guarantee it bodily comes eastward??? It is common for weak La Ninas to see the core of the cold anomaly stretching from western Canada southeastward into Northern Plains / Great Lakes with lessening impacts as you approach New England.

 

from Canada southeast 

Models are missing the push of the negative EPO.  Seen it many times.  

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Interesting they were all working for me…

Congrats on taking number 1

13 hours ago, dendrite said:

We may not all agree on the weather, but at least we can all say F the Chiefs.

Omg yes yes yes.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

See following post 

Its coming 

First legit snow squall 

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Talk to me when the EPS shows that

First snow squall of the season

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Personally, I don’t get antsy before mid December.   Now at the tail end of my 79th year, sustained snow and cold has almost never happened before that.

Climo is about 4 inches to the 14th here. I would love to see a couple inches first week then sustained cold.