Ginx snewx

51 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Retirement gives you the wait option. Back in the day would have used the edge of your coffee cup.

Credit card.  Hard to believe any adult person not having an ice scraper in New England though 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s an increasing threat this weekend over interior CNE. 

Euro 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The ice threat last  night was always modeled.

He is talking this weekend 

13 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Last semester I tried to train a predictive model on reanalysis 72 hours prior to major east-coast storms to help me create an indicator that would take in 500 mb data from NA and spit out a value indicating how likely a storm was to occur using ERA5 dataset from ECMWF. I bit off more than I could chew and eventually had to use temperature and wind data only. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Valiant effort-

I use the rolling forward method . To me exciting times in our immediate future 

13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Today (and tomorrow) is 30th anniversary of the Blizzard of '96. I made two full radar animations of this event one with a 10 min interval and one with a 15 min interval and different overlay. 

Snowfall maps were recently updated but only OKX and PHI had a PNS for this event with a lot of reports. BOX & ALY did not, they didn't start doing that until the 96-97 season. So all we have is the COOP reports to go off of and official climo sites. 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-7-8-1996

NWSFO Boston (Taunton), Massachusetts, CWA — The storm produced up to 29 inches

of snow, blizzard conditions, and a (relatively minor) 2-foot storm surge along the coast.

Over 20 inches of snow fell in Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Plymouth and Bristol Counties

in Massachusetts. This swath was a continuation of the heaviest snow band which originated

in central Virginia, then crossed eastern Pennsylvania and northeast New Jersey. The

snowfall from this storm added to the existing snow cover, giving Boston's Logan Airport 30

inches on the ground. This broke the all-time snow depth record of 29 inches set in February

1978. However, the 18.2 inch total for this storm at Logan was only the seventh heaviest

snowfall event—the Blizzard of '78 is this area's benchmark storm.

The storm's main impact was to shut down school systems, airports, and other transportation

means for several days. In addition, heavy snow accumulations collapsed roofs in the days

following the blizzard.

Southern New England

Southern New England was also on the northern fringes of this event. All available model

guidance indicated a sharp gradient of the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) and relative

humidity fields. Due to model interpretation and the uncertainty of the guidance, warning and

watch lead times were somewhat reduced for a large section of the CWA. Nonetheless, NWSFO

Taunton issued numerous statements to update the situation. A Winter Storm Watch was issued

Saturday morning at 0900 UTC, January 6, for the possibility of heavy snow for Cape Cod, the

Islands, and south coastal Rhode Island. At 0900 UTC, January 7, a second period Winter Storm

Warning was issued for the entire Taunton CWA except for Franklin and Hampshire Counties in

Massachusetts and Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties in New Hampshire. At that time, these

counties were covered with a Winter Storm Watch. In the January 7 afternoon forecast package,

all of the Taunton CWA was placed under a Winter Storm Warning. By 0200 UTC, January 8,

southeast coastal Massachusetts, including the city of Boston, and south coastal Rhode Island

were upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.

As model guidance shifted the snow northward across Massachusetts with time, the Boston

forecasters had to catch up to the event and issue warnings instead of watches. Post-storm

reviews by the Taunton office noted that the areal extent of the watch should have been increased

according to the conservative Eastern Region policy of issuing watches when the probability of

the event occurring is at least 30 but less than 70 percent.

Like many notable winter storms, portions of the southern New England coastline were

threatened with storm surge flooding. A Coastal Flood Watch was issued early on the morning of

January 7 and upgraded to a Coastal Flood Warning that afternoon. The tide of concern was the

afternoon high tide of January 8. Just before high tide, the wind became northerly and parallel to

the immediate coast, lessening the threat for coastal flooding. Consequently, the impact was

relatively minor with some flooding of shore roads, a few of which were closed for a short time.

The NWSFO in Taunton continued coordinating with external users in southern New England

even though the storm was initially forecast to head out to sea south and east of the area. As the

storm track changed, this constant contact proved beneficial because emergency managers were

kept briefed and well informed. After additional coordination calls, the Massachusetts Emergency

Management Agency opened on Sunday and the mayor of Boston ordered the removal of existing

snow on city streets prior to the onset of the storm.

Mead Herrick, Director of the New Hampshire Emergency Management Agency, was

satisfied with the level of service provided by NWS offices but stressed that this was not of the

same magnitude that it was farther south. For this area of the country, this was a winter storm

and not a blizzard. He felt the coordinating office was well in tune with this, and the forecast

products and coordination were in keeping with the event.

24 minutes ago, adam038 said:

No. I’m a far less important Adam


.

Lol we are all important 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

IDK...looks textbook -WPO to me.

Feed me 75% of those years and my 56 inches from now until April verifies 

Just now, adam038 said:

Nice snowy finish. Should make the roads even more fun.


.

Are you the Adam from IJD who was on the radio?

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, a worthwhile event is different...sign me up...we wouldn't go anywhere. But it's these nuisance-level inconveniences that have consistently plagued day-to-day life this season that I'd prefer to avoid, unless they were occurring over top of some exotically deep pack, which clearly doesn't exist.

Jan 1994 drove me nuts. Think they missed a bunch and had like 4 delays. All for minor events and it was so cold no one left the house 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was honestly hoping for all rain...needing to commute over an hour to work, and the wife needing to get the 4 little ones to school/day care will do that.

So many years I was conflicted with wanting feet of snow or inches of ice only to remember it meant no school for a boatload of teenagers in the house and me usually getting called into work for snow removal or power issues. I never wavered though still wanted history.  Thankfully 2015 occurred after they all moved out.

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Flipped over to light snow here at the tail end. Socked in with fog and pine trees doing a solid boob sag with icing 

Congrats all rain after minor ice last night. 

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

The point - poorly conveyed by me .. heh - is that the typically causality for -WPO and -EPO responses were not likely what drove that N. Pacific resonant pattern. 

Therefore, it is not likely that anyone really saw that coming.   The silly "tsking" is not meant to trigger you.  It's just that assessing what's going on without qualitative analysis is inherently risky in general.

Really though in early Nov all extended modeling showed a flip to a massive negative WPO development for Dec. Cold solutions were no surprise. Triggered?  Hardly. 

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

To me it was all more than that.

...the entire hemispheric layout was not anticipated.   That's what it means to be 'highly anomalous' but semantics aside. 

That was not a canonical WPO ... it was a freak scenario that weighted the WPO and EPO ( oscillatory) down just because the ridge meandered some over a 4 week period, but that whole circumstance was something else.   Proper -WPOs are situated closer to the Siberia/NW Pacific.  The EPO is closer to Alaska...  That thing was centered over the dateline, slightly S of WPO latitudes, but was just enormous enough to pull on the index. 

Numerology of the indexes, without qualitative analysis?    tsk tsk

Dont know in history where the ridge resides but any month where the WPO is negative 3 or lower has always meant BN east . Tsk Tsk for not knowing historical correlation 

6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The 1998 ice storm left a nice-looking white birch bent nearly 90°.  The tree was 7-8" diameter and had been 45-50 feet tall.  When I noticed it was lifting a bit, I tossed a rope over it about 25 feet from the stump, attached the rope to my come-along and to another tree.  Every few days I'd cinch up the rope and by mid-April the tree was back to nearly vertical.  We then moved to New Sharon on May 15 so I've no idea how that birch is doing now.

About 2" here, with off-on light snow, temp low 20s.

These small birches were bent over in the March 18 paste storm and are still bent crooked in 25

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow. 

Not intending to troll the timing here but ... I was just looking at the 12z NAM grid.  If those numbers are right for Friday, we're going above MOS and probably human interpretation on that day.  It's too early in the returning insolation to expect much assist, but +8C at 900 mb would send the temperature to 72F if this were mid February.   Don't know about January 9th... proooobably not.  Gossamer snow pack will prevent some recovery, too.

If that NAM thermal profile is right, ton of midday sun and light WSW wind will be interesting for the temperature nerds like me. 

Cloudy upper 40s

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't know for 100% but I've always wondered if there was a relation. Is it the QB? 

 

Yes he has been on a couple commercials 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Precisely as planned AFAIC....only wrinkle so far has been the huge -WPO ridge making December even colder than thought.

Negative WPO was in the cards starting appearing beginning of November as many here pointed out. All signs pointed to colder solutions.  After a thaw can we make it a Pete Repete .Tack on the deep negative EPO balls cold. As the STS ramps up too. The elusive East Coast Mauler this year? 

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Goff Law has about 95% of the highway advertisement billboards  

You know who the brother is right?

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z GFS 

In good time. Its coming 

Great day to ski in Maine 

35⁰ rain looks like Hubbardston wins the ice ring for the day 

10 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

2 years ago today. The other big storm that season. A lot of the areas that jackpotted here missed out on the Feb 13th, 2024 snowstorm. A pretty insane gradient S to N with coastal SECT getting less than 1" to upwards of 17" in N Granby. Just got done re-doing this entire storm from scratch for accuracy and to include Lower Northeast map w/ climo sites. 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-6-7-2024

 

Contours Only

 

 

Happy anniversary 

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

That and probably genetics.  You have at least some longevity in your bloodline.  I attribute my own good fortune to pure luck. No one in my bloodline has made it out of their 70s.  

I like dad bod…I’m gonna use that for me!  And one more thing/this winter is growing more sour by the day.

Have faith young man we have recovered from worse even later. 

41 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I haven't graduated to bionic man yet but 2nd hernia surgery coming up in February, plus have had shoulder impingement on right side for about 8 months. Getting old is fun!

Golden years my ass lol

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ray, Feb 1956 and Feb 1972 were good and both La Nina...'56 was a strong Nina.

I'm stil trying to find a similar pattern as to the one being forecasted by ensembles....I agree Feb 2014 is prob the closest but that had the lower heights biased further west....more of a -PNA than is currently being progged. Late Jan/early Feb 2013 is another somewhat similar pattern too.