Scraff

Nice write up by Justin Berk: “Is there a case to be made for snow next weekend? These are just notes of what I’m watching this week… Timing of upper level energy can be off by a day when looking a full week away. This past Friday event initially looked like an afternoon and night thing… but it ended up mostly in the morning…. And lingering into the next day with upper level support. My purpose here is the highlight that the modeling is NOT perfect. It’s all about timing and I subscribe to the fact this polar jet has features we are not seeing handled well on the models. Not seeing much snow now, could change if the alignment changes…. And it may from what I saw in the early morning plots. The chaotic atmosphere is imperfectly predicted farther out in time. 1. The big push of the Polar Vortex will arrive. 2. Temps Saturday afternoon likely to stay in the 20s to low 30s. Tracking ENERGY in the jet stream with Vorticity 5-7 days away is imperfect. Again, the timing can be off by a a few hours or a day, and that can make or break phasing - which is needed for a storm to form. 3. Vorticity Saturday morning from the EPS, which is an ensemble blend of global models. This brings the main vort max across Maryland and then just cold. 4. Vorticity Saturday morning on the European AI model looks similar, but more active. There is more energy in the pipeline. THEN… 5. Vorticity Sunday night brings the base of the polar jet across Maryland. Will it snow? 6. Saturday Afternoon ECMWF has a clipper to our north, with a chance for flurries while light snow in the mountains and to our north. The timing is off and not letting it phase. If this ends up a little south or the timing changes, I believe there’s a chance for more to develop. 7. Sunday afternoon the ECMWF AI model brings that wave in later and spins up as it hits the coast. 8. Sunday Night the GFS is later with the energy AND closest with the attempt to phase. Just seeing the variations next weekend show me there is a lot left to be understood. So expect the outlook to change. It’s NOT a promise that it will snow, but a pledge that next weekend’s weather will be cold, but the rest we don’t fully know. Faith in the Flakes”

Just stepping back in here today and catching up. Been out test driving new AWD vehicles today. About to make a purchase in the next few days. Apparently, I need to get this done before next weekend? Of all things I read, the only thing retained was December 2009.

And rabbits in Derwood running for their lives.

I’ll confirm it. Just measured 1” exactly on the deck. Best winter ever!

Feeling this little mini Moco-Hoco death band. Love it! When’s our real threat window though?

Beautiful out there! Solid dusting. Coming down at a light to moderate clip here at the Columbia/Elkridge line. My kind of morning.

I’m not feeling anything but a car-topper here in Hoco, but damn I love your energy. Always have! My kids who are grown ass adults now tell me they still like to go on Jebwalks in the snow.

Super concerned about our fluffy car topper. Ran to the store. Hope I’m doing this right?

Congrats! How soon until you read him the forum for story time?

Well unless the Euro bumps norther and juicer, my bar is set at car-topper. Eh. Who we kidding. I’ll probably be at a bar too.

How we doing? Euro ok? Been busy drinking beer on the job. Because it’s my job! I know everyone throwing me a pity party for my oh so rough life.

That’s too wordy. Next time just say we suck at snow.

6z Euro. Count me in! Maybe we can juice it up a touch more? I need enough snow to cover my back yard leaves that I was too effin lazy to rake.

BWI: 22.5" DCA: 15.6” IAD: 26.2” RIC: 11.8” Tie Breaker SBY: 9.4"

Appetizers on Tuesday. Main course Saturday? I’m in.

If Frederick gets 21 and I get 4, I might go old school Ji in here.

We can reel this down to us. Plenty of time to manifest it.

GooFuS has restored my faith! LFG!! Happy TGiving everyone! Enjoy until Dr No shows up.

It’s always happy hour somewhere. Let’s kick of drinksgiving right! Sapwood slayin it! Bourbon barrel aged coconut-vanilla-chocolate imperial stout. 12%.

Caps with the sweet W tonight! After the disaster Tampa game, this was a nice bounce back.

Happy hour will be rockin’ today! Cheers to canceling / uncanceling winter on 11/24.

I won’t speak up for anyone else here, but Sunday fun day has been in effect for me since noonish.

Just curious. Where da fu*k is Randy!? He no longer likes winter misery!? Get your ass back in here so we can all whine and bitch together.

Mark Andrew’s for President!

While the Ravens need to pull their shit together, my beer selection(s) today do not. RAR is killing the Hop Saturation Ale (HSA) game.