Good morning all! From Larry Cosgrove:
The forecast for the later week exemplifies what makes synoptic meteorology both exciting, while at the same time stressful. Unlike the ejecting disturbance in the near term, which will have issues with confluence and orographic dispersion, the second impulse will have an ideal chance at growth as the center will redevelop after crossing the Appalachian Mountains in southern Virginia on early Thursday morning. With a portion of the mAk vortex in Newfoundland retrogressing back into New England, a capture mechanism at 500MB will be present which will allow for both rapid deepening and leftward recurvature. As I have cautioned since last weekend, there is a chance that the normal model rightward bias will be evident with this feature. There is a chance, about 1 in 3, that snowfall impacts, along with wind, could be felt along the Interstate 95 corridor on Thursday and Friday. Yes, the center may shift far enough off of the Atlantic coastline as to minimize winter weather risks to the major cities. But I do not like the idea of writing this feature off, since you can detect a stronger intensity and more west trajectory in recent runs of the computer schemes.
As things stand now, the only relatively sure threat for heavy snow and mixed precipitation is across the Virginias, Washington DC, Maryland and Delaware. The no-snow line should run just above the North Carolina border, but I would not be surprised if the northern portion of the Tar Heel State gets some sleet or snow in the end phase of the low pressure passage, which looks to emerge int0o the open Atlantic Ocean very near Norfolk VA on Thursday afternoon. We should soon know on the Sunday 12z model runs if this is "one for the fish" or "the snowbirds got their wish".