DomNH

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I get what you’re saying but it’s awfully hard to predict the conflicting signals.   If you’re in subsidence you’re screwed but it could easily  by 10 miles away so I’d wait til tomorrow before being miserable.

Yeah, too early to panic over mesoscale banding stuff, even if there are certain areas more prone to screwholes than others in these setups. 

I'll wait until tomorrow to congratulate dendrite. 

The FU hole between the H7 deformation and the CCB is well known to those who live in the Merrimack River Valley. 

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s oscillating around se Mass mostly. This run has it in western RI and eastern CT

Nah there's definitely a subby hole around 495 on that run. I'm probably on the eastern edge of the deformation there. N ORH to dendrite get smoked. 

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The stronger and further west this comes, the worse that slot gets.

Well yeah, it was always there. This run it's over your fanny instead of the fish.

That said, not sure it even matters unless you're truly a jackpot fetishist. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That tries to slot RI and metro west. 

Yeah there would be some melts if that played out verbatim lol.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its right over you on the euro

Yep, I saw that. Someone's easily measuring 2' under that wherever it sets up.

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO has the death band in the same EXACT spot as JUNO

Crushed.

ORH gets obliterated under the weenie band on that run. 

5 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Straight up 0z Euro QPF rip and read.

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

The NAM has CT starting to snow at 13z Friday. That would be awesome. Even if it’s just an appetizer for what’s to come.

I doubt much, if any, of that reaches the ground.

ICON and NAM. Might as well detach the plows. 

Jesus I've seen more references to the SREFS over the last day than I have seen here over the last 5 years.

Getting saggy at my parents’ near Hollis. 

Half inch. Meh. 

I’m downtown having dinner and a little inebriated but looks like it has turned to rain to me. 

2 smi -SN maybe. Slushy roads

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sheared vortmax through Ottawa...I should’ve been even more pessimistic but I got too wrapped up in the models 2 days ago when they were trending colder and looked like a decent shot of lift on the front end. 
 

If that was tracking through PA or even souther tier of NY and not a sheared mess, that would have been a different ballgame. This kind of reminds me of that MLK weekend event in January 2020....we had a much better antecedent airmass so we stayed all snow but the upper energy was a sheared disaster displaces NW so it was like 3-5” of sand and garbage rates with a shredded radar.  

Yeah there were a lot of red flags. I was with you being too optimistic a couple days ago. Thought we could wring out 3-4’’ but it’s not happening. 

Kinda brutal. Dismal snow growth 1 sm vis. Don’t see it getting better 

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Straight rain now.  33.5F 

.30” total.  That’s even worse than my jaded  call for 1-2”.   Lol

Oof.

Probably about 1sm right now. Crappy flakes. Starting to stick to untreated roads. I’m gonna guess we end up with like 2’’ at this point. 

-SN. Sticking on grass. 

Ripping virga.

Couple stray flakes here and there for the last hour or two.

We bail. SWFEs blow.

I still like 3-4'' of sand here before pellets. Tossing warning amounts, and pretty confident if it busts it'll be the under.