DomNH

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Most of my forecast updates last night revolved around trying to sharpen the gradient between the coast and interior. I had a hard time seeing the banding getting west of 495. 

Yeah....when I woke up and took at a look at the 6z NAM and whatever the latest HRRR was I knew we were in trouble. 

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That’s what I don’t get, they’ve had plenty of time to readjust the forecast for this area.  It’s been snowing for hours here and I only have a little over an inch.

 

 

Yeah. At this point I'm guessing this is more of a 6-12'' deal here and a 4-8'' deal out your way. 

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

They are staying pretty aggressive for W MA, hope it plays out.

Big time doubts about this west of 495 now. Still early but the short term guidance is seriously meh.

Would really like at least 6’’ by 1 to go out and do some snowshoeing. Thought it was a lock before bed but looking at radar and short term guidance I’m not so sure. 

Maybe an inch? -SN, poor growth.

2 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

Likelihood someone hits 40”?

Can always measure a drift. 

Oh for sure that run slaps. It's just odd how it gets there lol.

WTF is this evolution.

2 minutes ago, msg112469 said:

I'm sorry. You're right. It was the Euro, but you get the idea. It's common for snow totals to come down as you get closer to game time on large events! You should know that since I've seen you on this forum for the better part of a decade. 

The reason I posted this time around is because of the magnitude of what was possible. 

 

It doesn't look like we'll get 4 feet. We'll likely get 2 feet in the Boston area and I'm OK with that.

My point was no model was spitting out 40''. Only weenie maps with weenie snow algorithms were printing that. 

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Probably by the time we wake up tomorrow morning.

Yeah I agree with this. Don't think guidance has fully resolved that feature yet.

Just now, msg112469 said:

Boston is going wind up with a #1 all time snowfall from this and people are ready to jump off a bridge because the NAM isn't printing 35-40" anymore. That was expected BTW. You people are out of your minds.

It was never printing 40'' if you actually know what you're looking at. 

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

More kuchie maps.

Absolute garbage.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This isn't as dire as I thought....I never look until after the fact.

Depends on perspective I guess. Blows chunks if you were looking for historic outside SEMA, but still a solid 12''+ ORH east.

Just now, JC-CT said:

Wow. Pedestrian warning event outside of 495.

You never want to see a dumbbell low.

12z so far has kind of sucked west of 495 relative to previous guidance. Can't deny it. 

9 minutes ago, Mj-pvd said:

Going to be a mess in providence and Boston tomorrow.  Grocery stores in providence look like black Friday at Best Buy. 

Nashua last night wasn't any better. People are dopes. 

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Trend today so far has been away from the monster event, IMO. Or at least narrowing the range of the best totals. Still a great storm. 

I wouldn't go that far, but I do think we're seeing some wrinkles being highlighted this morning that could bring this from a historic all timer regionwide to confining that to a narrower area while it's simply a biggie for the rest of SNE.

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Are we starting to lose our collective composure?

When the RGEM and ICON come out, yeah probably.

Just now, dendrite said:

Who cares? That run was terrible.

Lol yeah forget ratios. That verifies and weenies are swan diving off the Tobin. 

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

Never felt comfortable going over 18" here

I wouldn't be surprised if we got two feet. I also wouldn't be surprised if we got 14''.

Just now, MaineJayhawk said:

Upstream/downstream

Floor/ceiling

Without any weird meso low crap this probably has an 18'' floor for most of SNE.

That right there is why I wouldn't be comfortable completely chucking them. There is a scenario where this has a 12-15'' floor. 

If I was throwing numbers on a map for this area I’d probably cop out and just put 1-2’. Dual low possibility gives me a little bit of pause to just completely chuck them high and far. 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is a pretty solid meltdown even by Ray’s standards 

To be fair, I'd rather taint than be stuck under 15 dbz for 6 hours while towns 15 miles east and west are snowing 4''/hr.